Value
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
BEP · Why this verdict
Why Brookfield Renewable Partners L (BEP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookfield Renewable has strong sentiment and a mostly positive earnings record, but it burns cash (free cash flow at -188% of revenue), has no moat, an unsafe dividend and only 3.4% upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -188% of revenue, and has no competitive moat, with quality scoring only 3.2/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns less negative than -100% of revenue and quality score improves above 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a capital-intensive renewable developer, negative free cash flow reflects growth investment that may pay off in later years. | ||
The price of $28.54 is only 3.4% below the $29.51 analyst target, against 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.62. Upside pct | Analyst target rises above $32 as earnings improve within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst rating (7.2/10) and price target (7.6/10) component scores are strong, so sentiment could lift targets. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, including the last three, with losses narrowing to -$0.37 per share in July 2026. Earnings | The report due in 11 days beats the estimate again and loss per share narrows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe one miss was -156% and the 242% surprise in January came from a swing to a profit off a negative estimate, so the average surprise of 25.5% is distorted. | ||
The dividend carries a yield trap warning (safety score 4.3/10) and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.60 with implied volatility at 64%. Catalyst breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 and dividend safety score rises above 6 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh put volume may be hedging by holders of a heavily shorted name rather than directional conviction. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average but that average is still rising 0.9% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, with momentum at 5.3/10. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum is mid-range and the stock sits in a range-bound setup, so the pullback may not resolve higher. | ||
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -188% of revenue, and has no competitive moat, with quality scoring only 3.2/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns less negative than -100% of revenue and quality score improves above 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterFor a capital-intensive renewable developer, negative free cash flow reflects growth investment that may pay off in later years.
The price of $28.54 is only 3.4% below the $29.51 analyst target, against 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.62.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst target rises above $32 as earnings improve within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst rating (7.2/10) and price target (7.6/10) component scores are strong, so sentiment could lift targets.
Earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, including the last three, with losses narrowing to -$0.37 per share in July 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The report due in 11 days beats the estimate again and loss per share narrows.
CounterThe one miss was -156% and the 242% surprise in January came from a swing to a profit off a negative estimate, so the average surprise of 25.5% is distorted.
The dividend carries a yield trap warning (safety score 4.3/10) and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.60 with implied volatility at 64%.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 and dividend safety score rises above 6 within 12 months.
CounterHigh put volume may be hedging by holders of a heavily shorted name rather than directional conviction.
The stock is below its 200-day average but that average is still rising 0.9% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, with momentum at 5.3/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5.
CounterMomentum is mid-range and the stock sits in a range-bound setup, so the pullback may not resolve higher.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -188% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.00
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.54
Upside
+2.9%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.5<1.5@spot outcome against Sentiment at 6.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.54.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.9, Catalyst at 6.2, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.2, and Quality at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burning No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow improves above -50% of revenue from the current -188%.
- P2Limited Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $32 from the current $29.51.
- P3Improving Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Unsafe Dividend And Bearish Options
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 2.60.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +0.9%.