Value
8.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.35
- ▸Attractively valued
BBD · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bradesco (BBD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco Bradesco is cheaply valued at a 7.8x forward P/E with a 5.7% dividend and heavy insider buying, but the $4.07 price is already above the $3.83 analyst target and options show elevated put demand.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 7.8x, margins of 27% and a 5.7% dividend. Valuation breakdown | Earnings hold up so the forward P/E stays below 10x and the 5.7% dividend is maintained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 1.71 means the multiple is not cheap relative to growth, and the quality score is only 5.1. | ||
Insiders made 51 purchases against 9 sales, a net buy of about $96.9M (0.213% of market cap) in 90 days, a bullish signal. Insider | Insider net buying continues over the next 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge purchases may reflect a controlling-shareholder structure rather than informed conviction, and the stock may already have priced them in. | ||
The price of $4.07 is above the analyst target of $3.83 (upside -5.8%), so reward-to-risk is negative against 15.0% downside. Targets | Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings improve. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith price beyond the target and only light analyst coverage, the target may be stale, but it still signals no upside. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14 with implied volatility of 112%, signaling heavy hedging or bearish positioning. Key risks | The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as sentiment improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPut buying on an ADR may be hedging by holders rather than bearish bets, so the ratio may mean little. | ||
Price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume, supporting a continuing uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and above the $3.79 stop. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA momentum score of 6.5 after an extended run leaves the stock exposed to a pullback toward the analyst target. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 7.8x, margins of 27% and a 5.7% dividend.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings hold up so the forward P/E stays below 10x and the 5.7% dividend is maintained.
CounterA PEG of 1.71 means the multiple is not cheap relative to growth, and the quality score is only 5.1.
Insiders made 51 purchases against 9 sales, a net buy of about $96.9M (0.213% of market cap) in 90 days, a bullish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider net buying continues over the next 90 days.
CounterLarge purchases may reflect a controlling-shareholder structure rather than informed conviction, and the stock may already have priced them in.
The price of $4.07 is above the analyst target of $3.83 (upside -5.8%), so reward-to-risk is negative against 15.0% downside.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings improve.
CounterWith price beyond the target and only light analyst coverage, the target may be stale, but it still signals no upside.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14 with implied volatility of 112%, signaling heavy hedging or bearish positioning.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as sentiment improves.
CounterPut buying on an ADR may be hedging by holders rather than bearish bets, so the ratio may mean little.
Price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume, supporting a continuing uptrend.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and above the $3.79 stop.
CounterA momentum score of 6.5 after an extended run leaves the stock exposed to a pullback toward the analyst target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.32 (n=9)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 7.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $96,861,970 (0.317% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 8.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.62
Upside
+39.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Quality at 5.1, and Peer rank at 6.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation High Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 7.8x.
- P2Large Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net purchases fall below $0 over a trailing 90 days from the current +$96.9M.
- P3Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifPrice rises above $4.60 while the analyst target stays below $4.07.
- P4Options Hedging Pressure
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 3.0 from the current 2.14.
- P5Uptrend Volume AccumulationTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $3.79 stop level from the current $4.07.