Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
BBCP · Why this verdict
Why Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Concrete Pumping Holdings has a 3-of-3 beat record, strong growth and a Piotroski score of 8/9, but only 8.7% upside to the analyst target, a 27.2x forward P/E and a 66% segment concentration limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Concrete Pumping has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses recorded and an average surprise of 146%. Bull case | Beats continue when next reported on 2027-01-13. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 146% average surprise is distorted by small estimates, and revenue figures diverge about 10% between data sources, so the quality of the beat is uncertain. | ||
Financial health is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, although the overall quality score is only 4.6. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer rank is low at 2.6/10, so the company is not best-in-class and quality is still below-average. | ||
Valuation is a forward P/E of 27.2x with a PEG of 0.65, which is reasonable only if growth persists. Valuation breakdown | Earnings grow fast enough to keep the PEG below 1.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 27.2x forward multiple for a construction-services business leaves little margin for a growth slowdown. | ||
The U.S. Concrete Pumping segment accounts for 66% of the business, concentrating exposure on one construction market. Bear case | The segment share declines from 66% as other segments grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA construction slowdown in one segment would hit most of earnings, and the concentration is rated a HIGH risk. | ||
The price of $9.38 sits 8.7% below the analyst target of $10.20, with reward-to-risk of 1.32 against 6.6% downside. Targets | Price rises toward $10.20 as beats continue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only 8.7% upside and near-equal downside to the $8.76 stop, the payoff is thin, and institutions are reducing. | ||
Concrete Pumping has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses recorded and an average surprise of 146%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Beats continue when next reported on 2027-01-13.
CounterThe 146% average surprise is distorted by small estimates, and revenue figures diverge about 10% between data sources, so the quality of the beat is uncertain.
Financial health is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, although the overall quality score is only 4.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above.
CounterPeer rank is low at 2.6/10, so the company is not best-in-class and quality is still below-average.
Valuation is a forward P/E of 27.2x with a PEG of 0.65, which is reasonable only if growth persists.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings grow fast enough to keep the PEG below 1.0.
CounterA 27.2x forward multiple for a construction-services business leaves little margin for a growth slowdown.
The U.S. Concrete Pumping segment accounts for 66% of the business, concentrating exposure on one construction market.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The segment share declines from 66% as other segments grow.
CounterA construction slowdown in one segment would hit most of earnings, and the concentration is rated a HIGH risk.
The price of $9.38 sits 8.7% below the analyst target of $10.20, with reward-to-risk of 1.32 against 6.6% downside.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price rises toward $10.20 as beats continue.
CounterWith only 8.7% upside and near-equal downside to the $8.76 stop, the payoff is thin, and institutions are reducing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
2.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 0.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.23
Upside
+2.5%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.7 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.4, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Insider at 2.7, and Technical at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 3 of 3).
- P2Strong Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8/9.
- P3Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 35x from the current 27.2x.
- P4Us Segment Concentration
Trip ifU.S. Concrete Pumping share of the business exceeds 75% from the current 66%.
- P5Thin Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.76 stop level from the current $9.38.