Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
BAND · Why this verdict
Why Bandwidth (BAND) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bandwidth combines 22% growth, exceptional cash conversion and 31% upside to the analyst target, but a 60% voice-product concentration, 26 insider sales and 16% short interest temper the case before earnings in 5 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 22% YoY, and valuation is a forward P/E of 22.9x with a PEG of 0.03. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.03 reflects a depressed trailing base, and a 44% drawdown shows the market doubts the durability of growth. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF-to-net-income with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, even though the overall quality score is 3.8. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays well above net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1000% ratio comes from a tiny net income denominator, so it may overstate true cash strength. | ||
The Voice product accounts for 60% of the business, a concentrated exposure that is rated a HIGH risk. Bear case | Voice share of revenue declines from 60% as other products scale. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single product at 60% means pricing pressure or a lost carrier relationship hits the whole company. | ||
Insiders made 26 sales worth about $2.3M (0.162% of market cap) in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal. Insider | Insider selling slows to fewer than 10 sales in the next 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterSales may be routine equity-compensation selling, and institutions are still accumulating. | ||
The price of $44.18 sits 31.0% below the analyst target of $57.85, and earnings arrive on 2026-10-29 after a 3-of-4 beat record. Targets | A beat at the October 29 report narrows the 31.0% gap to the target. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh implied volatility of 130% and 16% short interest make the earnings reaction unpredictable, and the stop at $41.09 is 7% below. | ||
Revenue is growing 22% YoY, and valuation is a forward P/E of 22.9x with a PEG of 0.03.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY.
CounterA PEG of 0.03 reflects a depressed trailing base, and a 44% drawdown shows the market doubts the durability of growth.
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF-to-net-income with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, even though the overall quality score is 3.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays well above net income over the next 12 months.
CounterA 1000% ratio comes from a tiny net income denominator, so it may overstate true cash strength.
The Voice product accounts for 60% of the business, a concentrated exposure that is rated a HIGH risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Voice share of revenue declines from 60% as other products scale.
CounterA single product at 60% means pricing pressure or a lost carrier relationship hits the whole company.
Insiders made 26 sales worth about $2.3M (0.162% of market cap) in 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to fewer than 10 sales in the next 90 days.
CounterSales may be routine equity-compensation selling, and institutions are still accumulating.
The price of $44.18 sits 31.0% below the analyst target of $57.85, and earnings arrive on 2026-10-29 after a 3-of-4 beat record.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A beat at the October 29 report narrows the 31.0% gap to the target.
CounterHigh implied volatility of 130% and 16% short interest make the earnings reaction unpredictable, and the stop at $41.09 is 7% below.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,297,257 (0.147% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.4 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 17%
- ▸High IV: 143%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.29
Upside
+19.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.01>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.3<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.29.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Quality at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income from the current 1000%.
- P2Growth At Reasonable Price
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 22%.
- P3Voice Product Concentration
Trip ifVoice share of revenue exceeds 70% from the current 60%.
- P4Persistent Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider sell value exceeds $5M in a trailing 90 days from the current $2.3M.
- P5Analyst Target Upside Before Earnings
Trip ifPrice falls below the $41.09 stop level from the current $44.18.