Value
4.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.1 |
| PEG | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 77.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.64
AZTA · Why this verdict
Why Azenta (AZTA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Azenta has solid cash generation and an 8/9 Piotroski score, but the $36.50 price is already above the analyst target, quality sits below the floor, and 20% short interest and weak earnings history limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is FCF-positive with a 10% FCF margin and 4.0% FCF yield, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and conservative debt levels. Quality breakdown | FCF margin holds near 10% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 66.1x prices in a large earnings rebound, and moderate margins leave little cushion. | ||
The price of $36.50 is above the analyst target of $32.89 (upside -9.9%), so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative. Targets | Analysts raise targets above the current price as results improve. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the price already beyond the target and only light analyst coverage, further gains need upward revisions that are not assured. | ||
Earnings history is poor, with 1 beat and 2 misses recently and an average surprise of -23.7%. Earnings | EPS beats resume at the 2026-11-20 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRepeated misses at a 66.1x forward P/E could trigger a sharp de-rating. | ||
Price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume and an RSI of 31 after a pullback. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average as volume accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI 31 can mark the start of a trend break rather than a buying chance, particularly with 73% implied volatility. | ||
Short interest is 20% and business quality scores 3.8, below the 4.0 floor, flagging below-average quality. Key risks | Short interest declines from 20% as results stabilize. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShort sellers may be right about weak fundamentals, and quality below the floor limits sizing. | ||
The company is FCF-positive with a 10% FCF margin and 4.0% FCF yield, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and conservative debt levels.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin holds near 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 66.1x prices in a large earnings rebound, and moderate margins leave little cushion.
The price of $36.50 is above the analyst target of $32.89 (upside -9.9%), so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as results improve.
CounterWith the price already beyond the target and only light analyst coverage, further gains need upward revisions that are not assured.
Earnings history is poor, with 1 beat and 2 misses recently and an average surprise of -23.7%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume at the 2026-11-20 report.
CounterRepeated misses at a 66.1x forward P/E could trigger a sharp de-rating.
Price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume and an RSI of 31 after a pullback.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average as volume accumulation continues.
CounterRSI 31 can mark the start of a trend break rather than a buying chance, particularly with 73% implied volatility.
Short interest is 20% and business quality scores 3.8, below the 4.0 floor, flagging below-average quality.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines from 20% as results stabilize.
CounterShort sellers may be right about weak fundamentals, and quality below the floor limits sizing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 3.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $8,096 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 20%
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.30
Upside
-19.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.52>1.3, MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -1.30.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Momentum at 6.8, and Insider at 6.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Quality at 3.8, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Already ReachedTripped
Trip ifPrice rises above $40 without the analyst target moving above $36.50.
- P2Fcf Positive Sound Balance Sheet
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 5% from the current 10%.
- P3Weak Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 1 of 3).
- P4Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $33.95 stop level from the current $36.50.
- P5Short Interest And Quality Floor
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% from the current 20%.