Value
5.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 41.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
AZTA · Why this verdict
Why Azenta (AZTA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality screens below the engine's floor at 3.4 versus a 4.0 minimum, with value-trap signals flagging margin compression (operating margin of -50.8%) and material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap). Warnings | The quality score climbs back above the 4.0 floor and the value-trap signal count drops from its current level. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is still positive with a healthy FCF yield of 8.5%, suggesting the business retains some cash-generation strength despite the margin compression. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed with a negative ratio of -0.79, and the price target is already described as reached, leaving only 2.6% upside to the take-profit level against 7.0% downside to the stop-loss. Engine gate (failed) | A new catalyst lifts the take-profit target meaningfully above the current price, restoring a positive asymmetry ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is characterized as a recovery, with MACD improving and momentum climbing back toward the 5.5 preferred level, which could support upside beyond the current conservative target. | ||
The stock is in a bear-market rally that has pushed RSI to an overbought 73, even as price remains below the 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (the moving average sloping down 3.6% over 30 days). Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the downtrend classification clears over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is accumulating and the death-cross warning notes momentum recovering (5.9, above the 5.0 recovery threshold), which could mean the downtrend is already reversing. | ||
The stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 42.1x, even though the PEG ratio of 0.34 suggests the multiple is still supported by expected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E compresses toward a more moderate level, or earnings growth catches up to justify the current multiple, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio of 0.34 is still well below 1, indicating the market may not be overpaying once growth is factored in. | ||
The company has missed or come in-line on 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average earnings surprise of -28.9%, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns. Earnings | The company returns to a consistent beat pattern, or the average surprise rises back toward positive territory, over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders have still been net buyers over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that sits in some tension with the recent earnings weakness. | ||
Business quality screens below the engine's floor at 3.4 versus a 4.0 minimum, with value-trap signals flagging margin compression (operating margin of -50.8%) and material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap).
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score climbs back above the 4.0 floor and the value-trap signal count drops from its current level.
CounterFree cash flow is still positive with a healthy FCF yield of 8.5%, suggesting the business retains some cash-generation strength despite the margin compression.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed with a negative ratio of -0.79, and the price target is already described as reached, leaving only 2.6% upside to the take-profit level against 7.0% downside to the stop-loss.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new catalyst lifts the take-profit target meaningfully above the current price, restoring a positive asymmetry ratio.
CounterThe setup is characterized as a recovery, with MACD improving and momentum climbing back toward the 5.5 preferred level, which could support upside beyond the current conservative target.
The stock is in a bear-market rally that has pushed RSI to an overbought 73, even as price remains below the 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (the moving average sloping down 3.6% over 30 days).
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the downtrend classification clears over the next 12 months.
CounterOn-balance volume is accumulating and the death-cross warning notes momentum recovering (5.9, above the 5.0 recovery threshold), which could mean the downtrend is already reversing.
The stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 42.1x, even though the PEG ratio of 0.34 suggests the multiple is still supported by expected earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E compresses toward a more moderate level, or earnings growth catches up to justify the current multiple, over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG ratio of 0.34 is still well below 1, indicating the market may not be overpaying once growth is factored in.
The company has missed or come in-line on 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average earnings surprise of -28.9%, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to a consistent beat pattern, or the average surprise rises back toward positive territory, over the next several quarters.
CounterInsiders have still been net buyers over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that sits in some tension with the recent earnings weakness.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Azenta's price target already looks reached with a negative risk/reward setup, and quality metrics sit below the engine's floor amid margin compression and a recent earnings miss streak, though a momentum recovery and positive insider buying offer some offsetting signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 17%, FCF yield 8.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $163,800 (0.014% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.4 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 21%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.30
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-7.0%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Insider at 7.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.8, Growth at 6.3, and Sentiment at 5.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Technical at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -0.79.
- P2Quality Below Floor Value Trap
Trip ifThe quality score rises above 4.0, clearing the engine's floor from the current 3.4.
- P3Overbought Bear Rally Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises more than 5% above the 200-day moving average, reversing the current confirmed downtrend.
- P4Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 25x from the current 42.1x.
- P5Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.