Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
AVO · Why this verdict
Why Mission Produce (AVO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Mission Produce trades at a forward P/E of 15.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.09, indicating a cheap valuation relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The multiple re-rates higher, closing some of the gap implied by the low PEG ratio, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining 24%, so the low PEG ratio may reflect unsustainably depressed earnings-growth expectations rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 146% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7 out of 9, though the business is described as having no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion stays strong and the Piotroski score holds or improves over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOverall quality still screens below the floor (3.7 versus a 4.0 minimum), and the business is flagged as having no competitive moat, meaning strong cash conversion could prove temporary. | ||
Revenue is declining 24% year over year, a headwind that the growth assessment explicitly flags. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to positive over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings are still described as strong (3 beats out of the last 4 quarters) and analysts see 32% upside, suggesting the revenue decline hasn't yet undermined profitability. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (the moving average sloping down 1.2% over 30 days), even though the engine's setup notes MACD improving and an RSI of 66. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score clears the 4.5 threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is already characterized as a recovery, with improving MACD and an RSI of 66, so the downtrend may already be reversing. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, adding $10.16 million (0.921% of market cap) across 9 buy transactions with zero sells, a bullish signal per the insider data. Insider | Net insider buying continues, or at least doesn't reverse to net selling, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying alone hasn't offset the quality score falling below the 4.0 floor, and the position-sizing recommendation still calls for avoiding new exposure despite the bullish insider signal. | ||
Mission Produce trades at a forward P/E of 15.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.09, indicating a cheap valuation relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple re-rates higher, closing some of the gap implied by the low PEG ratio, over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue is declining 24%, so the low PEG ratio may reflect unsustainably depressed earnings-growth expectations rather than a genuine bargain.
Cash conversion is excellent at 146% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7 out of 9, though the business is described as having no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion stays strong and the Piotroski score holds or improves over the next 12 months.
CounterOverall quality still screens below the floor (3.7 versus a 4.0 minimum), and the business is flagged as having no competitive moat, meaning strong cash conversion could prove temporary.
Revenue is declining 24% year over year, a headwind that the growth assessment explicitly flags.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive over the next several quarters.
CounterEarnings are still described as strong (3 beats out of the last 4 quarters) and analysts see 32% upside, suggesting the revenue decline hasn't yet undermined profitability.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (the moving average sloping down 1.2% over 30 days), even though the engine's setup notes MACD improving and an RSI of 66.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score clears the 4.5 threshold.
CounterThe setup is already characterized as a recovery, with improving MACD and an RSI of 66, so the downtrend may already be reversing.
Insiders have been net buyers, adding $10.16 million (0.921% of market cap) across 9 buy transactions with zero sells, a bullish signal per the insider data.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider buying continues, or at least doesn't reverse to net selling, over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider buying alone hasn't offset the quality score falling below the 4.0 floor, and the position-sizing recommendation still calls for avoiding new exposure despite the bullish insider signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mission Produce screens cheap on a forward P/E of 15.0x and a 0.09 PEG ratio, backed by strong cash conversion and net insider buying, but declining revenue, a confirmed technical downtrend, and quality scoring below the engine's floor argue for caution despite the recovery setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 146% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -24%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 6.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
9.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $10,161,827 (0.865% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 729%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.26
Upside
+3.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Insider at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 9.0, Momentum at 7.1, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.9, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 25x, more than double the current 15.0x level.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income cash conversion falls below 50% from the current 146%.
- P3Declining Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year over year.
- P4Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's threshold from the current 4.2.
- P5Net Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider transactions swing to net selling exceeding $1 million over the next 90 days.