Value
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
AVNS · Why this verdict
Why Avanos Medical (AVNS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The Piotroski F-Score sits at a strong 9 out of 9 and free cash flow is positive, even though margins remain moderate (FCF margin near 2%, FCF yield near 1.5%). Quality breakdown | FCF margin and FCF yield expand from their current low-single-digit levels as the quality picture improves. | →Stable |
| CounterOverall business quality is flagged as below-average in the key risks, and margins are already described as only moderate, leaving little cushion if conditions soften. | ||
Avanos has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise near 42%, consistent with a strong growth profile. Earnings | The beat streak extends past four quarters and the average surprise stays near current levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum has failed the engine's threshold at 4.1 against a 4.5 bar, and volume shows distribution even as price holds above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the market isn't rewarding the beats with sustained buying. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed at 4.1 against a 4.5 threshold, and on-balance volume is falling even as price sits above the 200-day moving average, signaling fading conviction behind the recent move. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score recovers back above 4.5 and volume shifts from distribution to accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average, and the four-quarter beat streak argues the underlying business trend is still intact despite the momentum gate failure. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 26.45 and implied volatility is high at 94%, with the stock trading above its options max-pain level of $22, pointing to above-average uncertainty priced into options. Options | The put/call ratio and implied volatility normalize toward more typical levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio could equally reflect hedging activity from long holders rather than bearish positioning, and the low conviction position sizing only reflects a current lack of an attractive setup, not deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
The engine flagged the upside as exhausted, with an asymmetry ratio of zero and price sitting just 2.2% below its 52-week high, leaving limited room for further appreciation without a new catalyst. Gates warning | A pullback resets the risk/reward setup, or a new catalyst lifts the take-profit target above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe strong earnings beat streak and growth profile could support a break to new highs even without a technical reset, if the market re-rates the stock on fundamentals. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score sits at a strong 9 out of 9 and free cash flow is positive, even though margins remain moderate (FCF margin near 2%, FCF yield near 1.5%).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin and FCF yield expand from their current low-single-digit levels as the quality picture improves.
CounterOverall business quality is flagged as below-average in the key risks, and margins are already described as only moderate, leaving little cushion if conditions soften.
Avanos has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise near 42%, consistent with a strong growth profile.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends past four quarters and the average surprise stays near current levels over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum has failed the engine's threshold at 4.1 against a 4.5 bar, and volume shows distribution even as price holds above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the market isn't rewarding the beats with sustained buying.
The engine's momentum gate failed at 4.1 against a 4.5 threshold, and on-balance volume is falling even as price sits above the 200-day moving average, signaling fading conviction behind the recent move.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score recovers back above 4.5 and volume shifts from distribution to accumulation.
CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average, and the four-quarter beat streak argues the underlying business trend is still intact despite the momentum gate failure.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 26.45 and implied volatility is high at 94%, with the stock trading above its options max-pain level of $22, pointing to above-average uncertainty priced into options.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio and implied volatility normalize toward more typical levels over the next 12 months.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio could equally reflect hedging activity from long holders rather than bearish positioning, and the low conviction position sizing only reflects a current lack of an attractive setup, not deteriorating fundamentals.
The engine flagged the upside as exhausted, with an asymmetry ratio of zero and price sitting just 2.2% below its 52-week high, leaving limited room for further appreciation without a new catalyst.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- A pullback resets the risk/reward setup, or a new catalyst lifts the take-profit target above the current price.
CounterThe strong earnings beat streak and growth profile could support a break to new highs even without a technical reset, if the market re-rates the stock on fundamentals.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Avanos Medical shows resilient fundamentals - a four-quarter beat streak, strong Piotroski quality score, and positive free cash flow - but technical momentum has failed the engine's threshold and the stock's upside looks exhausted near its 52-week high, supporting a hold rather than an add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 1.5%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 26.45
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.57>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Quality at 4.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Catalyst at 7.0, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 4.1, Insider at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Piotroski Cash Conversion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's threshold from the current 4.1.
- P4Elevated Options Uncertainty
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 50% from the current 94% level.
- P5Upside Exhausted Near High
Trip ifThe reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 from its current zero level.