Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
AUB · Why this verdict
Why Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo (AUB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Atlantic Union Bankshares exhibits strong earnings consistency and industry-leading growth, but the stock has rallied to within 1.4% of the analyst consensus target, leaving an unfavorable risk/reward at current prices that favors patience over initiating or adding to a position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including the two most recent consecutive beats, with the company averaging roughly 8.5% above consensus — a pattern that suggests disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery. Earnings | Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, each with a positive surprise exceeding 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn in-line quarter in the middle of the streak tempers the narrative, and the average beat of 8.5% is moderate; a softening operating environment for regional banks could quickly narrow the buffer between guidance and actual results. | ||
With the stock just 1.4% below the analyst consensus target of $40.12, the risk/reward sits at approximately 0.3-to-1 against the investor — an unfavorable setup where downside potential substantially outweighs the remaining upside at current prices. Bear case | Analyst consensus target rises above $46 (creating more than 15% upside from current price) or price pulls back meaningfully to restore a favorable risk/reward. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStocks near analyst targets frequently trigger upward target revisions following a strong earnings print; the three-quarter beat streak makes a near-term upgrade plausible. | ||
A confirmed golden cross, a position above all moving averages, an RSI near 58, and a bullish MACD all point to a stock in a technically healthy uptrend that has broken out through prior resistance. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout as a new support level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range and the Bollinger Band position scores near the bottom of its range, suggesting the price may be stretched relative to its envelope and at risk of consolidation. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.50 indicates that options market participants are deploying two and a half times as many puts as calls, reflecting substantial hedging against near-term downside that may act as a drag on price appreciation. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.2 as sentiment improves and near-term hedges roll off. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at local price highs can mark sentiment extremes; if the fundamental backdrop holds, the forced cover of those puts could amplify an upward price move. | ||
The company ranks at the top of its regional banking peer group on revenue and earnings growth, with reported growth of roughly 86% year over year — placing it in the industry growth leadership tier. Peer rank | Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth rates of this magnitude in regional banking are typically acquisition-driven or reflect low base-year effects; organic growth, net interest margin trends, and credit quality are the more durable metrics to monitor. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including the two most recent consecutive beats, with the company averaging roughly 8.5% above consensus — a pattern that suggests disciplined guidance and consistent operational delivery.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Two more consecutive earnings beats over the next two quarters, each with a positive surprise exceeding 5%.
CounterAn in-line quarter in the middle of the streak tempers the narrative, and the average beat of 8.5% is moderate; a softening operating environment for regional banks could quickly narrow the buffer between guidance and actual results.
With the stock just 1.4% below the analyst consensus target of $40.12, the risk/reward sits at approximately 0.3-to-1 against the investor — an unfavorable setup where downside potential substantially outweighs the remaining upside at current prices.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $46 (creating more than 15% upside from current price) or price pulls back meaningfully to restore a favorable risk/reward.
CounterStocks near analyst targets frequently trigger upward target revisions following a strong earnings print; the three-quarter beat streak makes a near-term upgrade plausible.
A confirmed golden cross, a position above all moving averages, an RSI near 58, and a bullish MACD all point to a stock in a technically healthy uptrend that has broken out through prior resistance.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the breakout as a new support level.
CounterThe stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range and the Bollinger Band position scores near the bottom of its range, suggesting the price may be stretched relative to its envelope and at risk of consolidation.
A put/call ratio of 2.50 indicates that options market participants are deploying two and a half times as many puts as calls, reflecting substantial hedging against near-term downside that may act as a drag on price appreciation.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.2 as sentiment improves and near-term hedges roll off.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at local price highs can mark sentiment extremes; if the fundamental backdrop holds, the forced cover of those puts could amplify an upward price move.
The company ranks at the top of its regional banking peer group on revenue and earnings growth, with reported growth of roughly 86% year over year — placing it in the industry growth leadership tier.
↑ImprovingPeer rank
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterGrowth rates of this magnitude in regional banking are typically acquisition-driven or reflect low base-year effects; organic growth, net interest margin trends, and credit quality are the more durable metrics to monitor.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-3.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Quality at 5.3, and Peer rank at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Near Target Limits Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target rises above $46, creating more than 15% upside from current price.
- P3Strong Momentum Breakout Confirmed
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and remains below it for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging Overhang
Trip ifPut/call ratio compresses below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Industry Growth Leadership Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.