Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.82
ATR · Why this verdict
Why AptarGroup (ATR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AptarGroup has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and presents roughly 18% upside to the price target on a favorable risk/reward, but a confirmed downtrend and an elevated put/call ratio signal that the market remains cautious — the fundamental opportunity is real, but technical and sentiment headwinds must first relent.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The put/call ratio stands at 2.0, meaning put open interest is double call open interest, and implied volatility is elevated at roughly 62% — the options market is pricing in significant downside risk or near-term uncertainty. Risk breakdown | A decline in the put/call ratio toward 1.0 and implied volatility falling below 40% would indicate that institutional hedging pressure has meaningfully eased. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can be a contrarian indicator when they reach extreme levels; heavy hedging sometimes precedes sharp reversals if the anticipated risk fails to materialize. | ||
The company has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 3%; no misses have occurred in the trailing year. Catalyst breakdown | Maintaining positive earnings surprises in the next two quarterly reports would confirm that guidance discipline remains intact. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth metrics are soft, and a leadership transition flagged in recent regulatory filings adds uncertainty about whether the beat cadence continues under potential new management. | ||
The stock sits roughly 18% below the price target, and the reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 3.6-to-1 in favor of buyers — a setup that clears the minimum asymmetry threshold. Price targets | If the stock advances toward the target over the next 12 months, that would represent a material gain relative to the defined downside risk. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend can persist longer than valuation alone would suggest; if the price continues lower, the absolute upside percentage grows while the loss on an existing entry also grows. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, and the average itself is sloping down roughly 3% per month — a pattern that indicates a confirmed downtrend rather than a temporary pullback. Momentum breakdown | A reclaim of the 200-day moving average accompanied by the average's slope turning flat or positive would be needed to invalidate this concern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is in the mid-50s, which the momentum data characterizes as a potential recovery setup rather than a deepening decline; volume accumulation (rising accumulation trend) also points to underlying buying. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.0, meaning put open interest is double call open interest, and implied volatility is elevated at roughly 62% — the options market is pricing in significant downside risk or near-term uncertainty.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- A decline in the put/call ratio toward 1.0 and implied volatility falling below 40% would indicate that institutional hedging pressure has meaningfully eased.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can be a contrarian indicator when they reach extreme levels; heavy hedging sometimes precedes sharp reversals if the anticipated risk fails to materialize.
The company has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 3%; no misses have occurred in the trailing year.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Maintaining positive earnings surprises in the next two quarterly reports would confirm that guidance discipline remains intact.
CounterGrowth metrics are soft, and a leadership transition flagged in recent regulatory filings adds uncertainty about whether the beat cadence continues under potential new management.
The stock sits roughly 18% below the price target, and the reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 3.6-to-1 in favor of buyers — a setup that clears the minimum asymmetry threshold.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the stock advances toward the target over the next 12 months, that would represent a material gain relative to the defined downside risk.
CounterA confirmed downtrend can persist longer than valuation alone would suggest; if the price continues lower, the absolute upside percentage grows while the loss on an existing entry also grows.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, and the average itself is sloping down roughly 3% per month — a pattern that indicates a confirmed downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A reclaim of the 200-day moving average accompanied by the average's slope turning flat or positive would be needed to invalidate this concern.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is in the mid-50s, which the momentum data characterizes as a potential recovery setup rather than a deepening decline; volume accumulation (rising accumulation trend) also points to underlying buying.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 5.0 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,611,784 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.58
Upside
+11.0%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Sentiment at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 3.6, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Upside Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to the price target compresses below 5%, indicating the stock has advanced most of the way toward $139.57 and the reward is now thin.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope rises above 0% and price holds above the 200-day moving average for 30 consecutive days, confirming the downtrend has reversed.
- P4Elevated Options Market Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility drops below 40% for 2 consecutive weeks.