Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
ATLC · Why this verdict
Why Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Atlanticus is a high-growth, cheaply valued credit business (83% YoY growth, forward P/E 6.3x) with strong quality metrics, offset by an 85% retail-partner concentration, high leverage and 28% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is strong: margins around 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, a wide economic moat and compounder-like returns plus growth. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays near 21% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or better. | →Stable |
| CounterCredit-services margins are cyclical and depend on loss rates; the moat score is a model estimate that a downturn could expose. | ||
Atlanticus is growing at 83% YoY with industry-leading growth rank and 10/10 revenue and earnings growth component scores. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings continue to grow well above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter83% growth in consumer credit can reflect aggressive underwriting that later turns into charge-offs, and growth rates mechanically decay as the base gets larger. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 6.3x with a PEG of 0.10, which is cheap relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings hold up so the low multiple re-rates toward peers rather than compressing further. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 6.3x may be a market discount for credit-cycle risk and concentrated partners, making it a value trap if charge-offs rise. | ||
Concentration is the main risk: the five largest retail partners account for 85% of the business, and leverage (D/E 8.5) costs the score 1.5 points. Bear case | Partner concentration should ease or stay contractually stable, with no loss of a top-five partner in the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLosing or repricing one major retail partner would hit volume immediately, and high leverage amplifies that shock. | ||
The price of $86.19 sits 31.8% below the analyst target of $113.62, with reward-to-risk of 3.94 against 8.1% downside, while 28% of float is short. Targets | Price closes a meaningful share of the 31.8% gap as growth persists, with short interest providing squeeze fuel. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy short interest of 28% may reflect informed skepticism about credit quality, and the technical setup has not yet broken out above resistance. | ||
Quality is strong: margins around 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, a wide economic moat and compounder-like returns plus growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays near 21% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or better.
CounterCredit-services margins are cyclical and depend on loss rates; the moat score is a model estimate that a downturn could expose.
Atlanticus is growing at 83% YoY with industry-leading growth rank and 10/10 revenue and earnings growth component scores.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings continue to grow well above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
Counter83% growth in consumer credit can reflect aggressive underwriting that later turns into charge-offs, and growth rates mechanically decay as the base gets larger.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 6.3x with a PEG of 0.10, which is cheap relative to earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings hold up so the low multiple re-rates toward peers rather than compressing further.
CounterA forward P/E of 6.3x may be a market discount for credit-cycle risk and concentrated partners, making it a value trap if charge-offs rise.
Concentration is the main risk: the five largest retail partners account for 85% of the business, and leverage (D/E 8.5) costs the score 1.5 points.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Partner concentration should ease or stay contractually stable, with no loss of a top-five partner in the next 12 months.
CounterLosing or repricing one major retail partner would hit volume immediately, and high leverage amplifies that shock.
The price of $86.19 sits 31.8% below the analyst target of $113.62, with reward-to-risk of 3.94 against 8.1% downside, while 28% of float is short.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes a meaningful share of the 31.8% gap as growth persists, with short interest providing squeeze fuel.
CounterHeavy short interest of 28% may reflect informed skepticism about credit quality, and the technical setup has not yet broken out above resistance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 83% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 32% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.10, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
3.08
Upside
+24.0%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.99>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.6 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 3.08 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.0, and Quality at 7.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.08 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Growth Credit Platform
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY from the current 83%.
- P2Cheap Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 6.3x without matching earnings growth.
- P3Strong Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8/9.
- P4Retail Partner Concentration
Trip ifTop-five retail partner share exceeds 90% from the current 85%.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $95 from the current $113.62.