Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
- ▸Attractively valued
ASR · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The business offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 11.9x and solid operating margins, but three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates by wide margins, growth is weak, and only about 5% headroom remains to the analyst target — leaving an unfavorable risk/reward despite improving technical signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration. | ||
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers. | ||
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup. Momentum breakdown | Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount.
CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates.
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap.
CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration.
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed.
CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers.
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery.
CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 7.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -60% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.67
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.54
Upside
+13.9%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.5) with weak momentum (3.7)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Catalyst at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Quality at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.1, Momentum at 3.7, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Quality MarginsTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x, indicating the discount has been closed.
- P2Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Poor Cash Conversion Quality Gap
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Recovery Momentum Unconfirmed
Trip ifRSI falls below 35 and on-balance volume turns negative for 30 consecutive days, confirming the recovery has failed.