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ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del SuresteHold5.8·$276.56+1.69%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 11.9x and solid operating margins, but three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates by wide margins, growth is weak, and only about 5% headroom remains to the analyst target — leaving an unfavorable risk/reward despite improving technical signals.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Quality MarginsStable
  • Poor Cash Conversion Quality GapImproving
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $276.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate, maintain, and develop airports in the southeast region of Mexico. The company operates through Cancún, Aerostar, Airplan, Mérida, Villahermosa, Holding & Services,... Read more

$276.56+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 5 Airports & Air Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-73.38%
IncomeYield2.12%(5y avg 2.36%)Payout152.39%at-risk
Stop $261.24Target $308.92(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$355.09+28.4%9 analysts
$308.92our TP
$276.56price
$355.09mean
$392

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $276.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA1.9
Profit Mgn26.1%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.18
Dividend2.12%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.6
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $259.01Resistance $316.66

Price Targets

$261
$309
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $276.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $308.92 (+11.7%), stop $261.24 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $308.92 (+11.7% upside). Target $308.92 (+11.7%), stop $261.24 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $261.24.

What are the risks of investing in ASR?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ASR overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASR?

23 analysts cover ASR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $355.

What does Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste do?Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate,...

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate, maintain, and develop airports in the southeast region of Mexico. The company operates through Cancún, Aerostar, Airplan, Mérida, Villahermosa, Holding & Services, and Other segments. It operates the airports in Cozumel, Huatulco, Mérida, Minatitlán, Oaxaca, Tapachula, Veracruz, and Villahermosa; and offers aeronautical services, such as passenger, aircraft landing and parking, passenger walkways, and airport security. The company also provides non-aeronautical services, such as leasing of space at its airports to retailers, restaurants, airlines, and other commercial tenants; luggage check-in, sorting and handling, aircraft servicing and cleaning, cargo handling, aircraft catering services, and assistance with passenger boarding and deplaning; and open-air parking lots for commercial vehicle operators, including taxi, bus and other ground transport operators; and other commercial activities. In addition, the company operates various airports in Colombia, including the Enrique Olaya Herrera Airport in Medellín, the José María Córdova International Airport in Rionegro, the Los Garzones Airport in Montería, the Antonio Roldán Betancourt Airport in Carepa, the El Caraño Airport in Quibdó, and the Las Brujas Airport in Corozal; and holds a lease to operate, maintain, and develop the Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: CAAP (Corporacion America Airports SA) · OMAB (Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro ) · PAC (Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific) · JOBY (Joby Aviation, Inc.)
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