Value
7.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ASPN · Why this verdict
Why Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Aspen Aerogels' quality score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with zero operating and net margins and no identified competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Operating and net margins turn positive and the quality score climbs back above the 4.0 floor. | →Stable |
| CounterAerogel insulation manufacturers scaling new EV-battery thermal-barrier production lines often run break-even-to-negative margins during a capacity ramp, which doesn't necessarily reflect long-term unit economics. | ||
The V8 layer flags the analyst target as already reached with just -1.0% implied upside, and the V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.07. Bear case | The risk/reward profile turns positive as the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target moves higher. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock near 52-week lows with rising accumulation volume could set up for a reversal that outpaces the current conservative target. | ||
Short interest is flagged as high at 10% of float, cited as a key risk alongside below-average business quality. Key risks | Short interest declines from the current 10% level as the underlying quality concerns resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterA 10% short interest at a stock already near 52-week lows with rising accumulation volume can instead set up conditions for a short squeeze rather than continued downside. | ||
The catalyst notes flag earnings concerns with only 1 beat against 2 misses over the tracked history, and an average surprise near -370%, driven by one large outlier miss. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings surprise pattern stabilizes and the beat rate improves from its current level. | →Stable |
| CounterOne extreme outlier surprise exceeding -1,400% in a single quarter can dominate the average and may not represent a repeatable pattern for future quarters. | ||
The stock sits near the bottom of its 52-week range, with a 52-week-position score of just 1.4, even as momentum notes describe accumulation via rising OBV volume. Momentum breakdown | The stock stabilizes and moves off its 52-week lows as accumulation volume continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock parked near 52-week lows with a flat moving-average slope often stays depressed for an extended period rather than staging a quick recovery. | ||
Aspen Aerogels' quality score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with zero operating and net margins and no identified competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating and net margins turn positive and the quality score climbs back above the 4.0 floor.
CounterAerogel insulation manufacturers scaling new EV-battery thermal-barrier production lines often run break-even-to-negative margins during a capacity ramp, which doesn't necessarily reflect long-term unit economics.
The V8 layer flags the analyst target as already reached with just -1.0% implied upside, and the V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.07.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The risk/reward profile turns positive as the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target moves higher.
CounterA stock near 52-week lows with rising accumulation volume could set up for a reversal that outpaces the current conservative target.
Short interest is flagged as high at 10% of float, cited as a key risk alongside below-average business quality.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines from the current 10% level as the underlying quality concerns resolve.
CounterA 10% short interest at a stock already near 52-week lows with rising accumulation volume can instead set up conditions for a short squeeze rather than continued downside.
The catalyst notes flag earnings concerns with only 1 beat against 2 misses over the tracked history, and an average surprise near -370%, driven by one large outlier miss.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise pattern stabilizes and the beat rate improves from its current level.
CounterOne extreme outlier surprise exceeding -1,400% in a single quarter can dominate the average and may not represent a repeatable pattern for future quarters.
The stock sits near the bottom of its 52-week range, with a 52-week-position score of just 1.4, even as momentum notes describe accumulation via rising OBV volume.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock stabilizes and moves off its 52-week lows as accumulation volume continues.
CounterA stock parked near 52-week lows with a flat moving-average slope often stays depressed for an extended period rather than staging a quick recovery.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aspen Aerogels shows early signs of volume accumulation near 52-week lows, but weak margins keep quality below the engine's floor, the analyst target has already been reached, and a volatile earnings history and elevated short interest add risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.1 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.43
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Insider at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Momentum at 2.3, and Catalyst at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.2, driven by margin improvement, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0, up from the current -0.07, restoring positive risk/reward.
- P3High Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of float, down from the current 10%.
- P4Volatile Earnings History
Trip ifBeat count over the trailing 4 quarters rises above 2, up from the current 1.
- P5Near 52 Week Low Accumulation
Trip ifThe 52-week-position score falls below 1.0, down from the current 1.4, indicating a fresh new low rather than stabilization.