Value
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ASPN · Why this verdict
Why Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aspen Aerogels combines declining revenue, weak business quality, repeated earnings misses and a very large insider sale with a 22.1% analyst-target upside. The risks outweigh the upside, so it is a speculative position to avoid for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $5.52 price is 22.1% below the $6.74 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.07 against 10.7% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $6.74 target over 12 months while holding above the $5.13 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and implied volatility of 134% means the stop can be reached long before the target. | ||
Insiders sold $58,086,415, or 12.680% of market cap, in a single transaction in the last 90 days with no purchases. Net value 90d | Further insider selling should stop and net purchases should appear if insiders see value at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterA single block sale may be a one-time liquidity event by a large holder rather than a judgment on the business. | ||
Revenue is declining 36% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $49.8M versus $78.0M a year earlier and $123.1M in late 2024. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stabilize and return to year-over-year growth within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue has risen for two straight quarters, from $37.9M to $49.8M, so the decline may be bottoming. | ||
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 2.0 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and a concentration of revenue in one customer, GM. Bear case | Quality score should rise above 4.0 and margins should turn positive as revenue recovers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe current ratio scores 8.6, so liquidity is strong and the weak score reflects losses rather than balance-sheet stress. | ||
Earnings delivery is poor: three misses in the last four quarters, with EPS of -$0.22 versus an estimate of -$0.20 in the latest report. Miss count | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters as losses narrow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe recent misses are small in dollar terms (a few cents per share) and followed a long run of beats through 2024 and 2025. | ||
The $5.52 price is 22.1% below the $6.74 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.07 against 10.7% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $6.74 target over 12 months while holding above the $5.13 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and implied volatility of 134% means the stop can be reached long before the target.
Insiders sold $58,086,415, or 12.680% of market cap, in a single transaction in the last 90 days with no purchases.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Further insider selling should stop and net purchases should appear if insiders see value at current prices.
CounterA single block sale may be a one-time liquidity event by a large holder rather than a judgment on the business.
Revenue is declining 36% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $49.8M versus $78.0M a year earlier and $123.1M in late 2024.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stabilize and return to year-over-year growth within the next 12 months.
CounterQuarterly revenue has risen for two straight quarters, from $37.9M to $49.8M, so the decline may be bottoming.
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 2.0 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and a concentration of revenue in one customer, GM.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 4.0 and margins should turn positive as revenue recovers.
CounterThe current ratio scores 8.6, so liquidity is strong and the weak score reflects losses rather than balance-sheet stress.
Earnings delivery is poor: three misses in the last four quarters, with EPS of -$0.22 versus an estimate of -$0.20 in the latest report.
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters as losses narrow.
CounterThe recent misses are small in dollar terms (a few cents per share) and followed a long run of beats through 2024 and 2025.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -36%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $58,086,415 (12.726% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸High IV: 120%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- INSIDER:12.73%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.14
Upside
+22.6%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.0
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 12.73%=EXTREME outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.14.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 6.3, and Momentum at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 2.0, and Peer rank at 2.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days falls below 2% of market cap from current 12.68%.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Quality Customer Concentration
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 2.0.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $5.13 stop level from current $5.52.