Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIC · Why this verdict
Why Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ategrity is a cheaply valued specialty insurer with a strong earnings record, but revenue and risk are heavily concentrated, the latest quarter missed and momentum is negative. A thin 3.9% upside to the analyst target leaves little reason to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is highly concentrated: casualty makes up 67.2% of the product mix and Ategrity Limited is the counterparty for 80.0%. Bear case | Concentration should ease as the book diversifies, with the largest counterparty share falling below 70% over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe counterparty is an affiliate of the company's own group, so the 80.0% figure may reflect structure rather than third-party dependence. | ||
Earnings show three beats in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 12.995%, but the latest quarter missed by 41.86% (EPS of $0.29 versus $0.50). Bull case | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, returning to the earlier beat pattern. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe October 2026 miss is the largest surprise in the record and may mark a turn in underwriting results after the earlier beats. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.6 out of 10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution, though the price is still above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as volume turns to accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe price remains above the 200-day average and the Bollinger component scores 10.0, so the weakness may be a short pullback. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 9.6x and a PEG of 0.27. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay under about 12x as earnings grow, so the discount reflects the business rather than falling profit. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsurance earnings are volatile, and the latest quarter's miss raises doubt about the earnings used for the low multiple. | ||
The $24.11 price is 3.9% below the $25.06 analyst target, against 9.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.4. Upside pct | Price should advance toward the $25.06 target without breaking the $22.42 stop level over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale, and the 3.9% upside leaves almost no cushion if the earnings miss repeats. | ||
The business is highly concentrated: casualty makes up 67.2% of the product mix and Ategrity Limited is the counterparty for 80.0%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration should ease as the book diversifies, with the largest counterparty share falling below 70% over 12 months.
CounterThe counterparty is an affiliate of the company's own group, so the 80.0% figure may reflect structure rather than third-party dependence.
Earnings show three beats in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 12.995%, but the latest quarter missed by 41.86% (EPS of $0.29 versus $0.50).
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, returning to the earlier beat pattern.
CounterThe October 2026 miss is the largest surprise in the record and may mark a turn in underwriting results after the earlier beats.
Momentum is weak at 3.6 out of 10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution, though the price is still above its 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as volume turns to accumulation.
CounterThe price remains above the 200-day average and the Bollinger component scores 10.0, so the weakness may be a short pullback.
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 9.6x and a PEG of 0.27.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay under about 12x as earnings grow, so the discount reflects the business rather than falling profit.
CounterInsurance earnings are volatile, and the latest quarter's miss raises doubt about the earnings used for the low multiple.
The $24.11 price is 3.9% below the $25.06 analyst target, against 9.7% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.4.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should advance toward the $25.06 target without breaking the $22.42 stop level over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale, and the 3.9% upside leaves almost no cushion if the earnings miss repeats.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $24,290 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.67
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Technical at 8.4, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Quality at 5.3, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Concentrated Business Risk
Trip ifAtegrity Limited counterparty share falls below 50% from current 80%.
- P2Beat Record With Latest Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.6.
- P4Attractive Insurer Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from current 9.6x.
- P5Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $22.42 stop level from current $24.11.