Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIC · Why this verdict
Why Ategrity Specialty Insurance (ASIC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ategrity has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, most recently by 24.39%, while trading at an attractive 10.2x forward P/E and posting 55% YoY growth. Bull case | The beat streak and roughly 55% growth pace continue into the next earnings report, due in 25 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been reached with -9.0% implied upside per the V8 warning, meaning even continued strong execution may already be priced in. | ||
The stock is overbought at RSI 79 with a flat-to-negative 200-day moving-average slope, which the momentum notes flag as late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools from the 79 level and the moving-average slope turns positive again rather than rolling over. | →Stable |
| CounterRising volume via accumulating OBV alongside the overbought reading could instead reflect genuine institutional buying pressure rather than distribution. | ||
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.6, and the V8 layer flags the analyst target as already reached with -9.0% implied upside. Warnings | The risk/reward profile stays negative and the stock trades sideways or pulls back toward support rather than pushing to new highs. | →Stable |
| CounterA company with a perfect earnings beat streak and 55% growth often earns upward analyst target revisions, which would flip the asymmetry ratio positive. | ||
The quality model flags an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow converting to just 2% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion improves toward a more typical double-digit percentage over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-quarter FCF/NI reading near 2% can reflect timing of claims payments or working-capital swings typical of an insurer, rather than a structural earnings-quality issue. | ||
Ategrity ranks as an industry growth leader with conservative debt levels per the peer-rank model, combining a 9.25 growth rank with a comparatively low-leverage balance sheet. Peer-rank breakdown | The growth rank stays elevated and debt levels remain conservative relative to insurance peers. | →Stable |
| CounterRapid growth at an insurer can mask underwriting risk that only becomes visible after a claims cycle turns, which conservative current leverage wouldn't necessarily protect against. | ||
Ategrity has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, most recently by 24.39%, while trading at an attractive 10.2x forward P/E and posting 55% YoY growth.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak and roughly 55% growth pace continue into the next earnings report, due in 25 days.
CounterThe analyst target has already been reached with -9.0% implied upside per the V8 warning, meaning even continued strong execution may already be priced in.
The stock is overbought at RSI 79 with a flat-to-negative 200-day moving-average slope, which the momentum notes flag as late-cycle distribution risk.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools from the 79 level and the moving-average slope turns positive again rather than rolling over.
CounterRising volume via accumulating OBV alongside the overbought reading could instead reflect genuine institutional buying pressure rather than distribution.
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.6, and the V8 layer flags the analyst target as already reached with -9.0% implied upside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The risk/reward profile stays negative and the stock trades sideways or pulls back toward support rather than pushing to new highs.
CounterA company with a perfect earnings beat streak and 55% growth often earns upward analyst target revisions, which would flip the asymmetry ratio positive.
The quality model flags an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow converting to just 2% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion improves toward a more typical double-digit percentage over the next several quarters.
CounterA single-quarter FCF/NI reading near 2% can reflect timing of claims payments or working-capital swings typical of an insurer, rather than a structural earnings-quality issue.
Ategrity ranks as an industry growth leader with conservative debt levels per the peer-rank model, combining a 9.25 growth rank with a comparatively low-leverage balance sheet.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The growth rank stays elevated and debt levels remain conservative relative to insurance peers.
CounterRapid growth at an insurer can mask underwriting risk that only becomes visible after a claims cycle turns, which conservative current leverage wouldn't necessarily protect against.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ategrity Specialty Insurance combines a perfect earnings beat streak, cheap valuation, and industry-leading growth with an already-reached analyst target and overbought, late-cycle technicals that cap near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 2% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $49,975 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.30
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.9, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Momentum at 5.7, and Quality at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.30 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Cheap Growth
Trip ifQuarterly EPS misses consensus, breaking the current 4-quarter beat streak, or revenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 55%.
- P2Late Cycle Distribution Risk
Trip ifRSI stays above 75 for 2 consecutive weeks while the 200-day moving-average slope stays negative.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -1.5, down from the current -0.6.
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio stays below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Industry Growth Leadership Conservative Debt
Trip ifGrowth rank falls below 6.0 out of 10, down from the current 9.25.