Value
3.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 41.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
ARXS · Why this verdict
Why Arxis (ARXS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arxis is a fast-growing aerospace and defense company with strong financial health, but a rich valuation, a thin 7.2% upside to the analyst target and earnings due in four days make the setup unattractive for new money.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Financial health is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a quality score of 6.3, though margin scores are modest. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score should stay at 7 or higher and quality should remain above 6.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores only 2.6 and net margin 3.6, so the high Piotroski score does not show strong profitability. | ||
Growth is strong at 25% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $500.7M versus $400.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% year over year across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and rests on a short reporting history, so the 25% rate may not persist. | ||
The $51.72 price is 7.2% below the $55.42 analyst target, against 11.2% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.64. Upside pct | Price should advance toward the $55.42 target without breaking the $48.10 stop level over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst upside is shown at 23% before the haircut, and analyst ratings are strong at 8.15, so targets could be raised after a good report. | ||
The latest quarter beat by 48.94% (EPS of $0.28 versus $0.19), and the next report arrives in 4 days. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly one quarter is on record, so the beat is not a reliable pattern, and the event falls inside the 7-day window. | ||
Valuation is rich on near-term earnings, with a forward P/E of 39.1x despite a PEG of 0.03. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should compress the forward multiple below 30x over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe low PEG suggests growth may justify the multiple, and the price-to-sales score of 1.7 shows revenue is valued richly. | ||
Financial health is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a quality score of 6.3, though margin scores are modest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should stay at 7 or higher and quality should remain above 6.0 over 12 months.
CounterOperating margin scores only 2.6 and net margin 3.6, so the high Piotroski score does not show strong profitability.
Growth is strong at 25% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $500.7M versus $400.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% year over year across the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and rests on a short reporting history, so the 25% rate may not persist.
The $51.72 price is 7.2% below the $55.42 analyst target, against 11.2% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.64.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should advance toward the $55.42 target without breaking the $48.10 stop level over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst upside is shown at 23% before the haircut, and analyst ratings are strong at 8.15, so targets could be raised after a good report.
The latest quarter beat by 48.94% (EPS of $0.28 versus $0.19), and the next report arrives in 4 days.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next four quarters.
CounterOnly one quarter is on record, so the beat is not a reliable pattern, and the event falls inside the 7-day window.
Valuation is rich on near-term earnings, with a forward P/E of 39.1x despite a PEG of 0.03.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should compress the forward multiple below 30x over the next 12 months.
CounterThe low PEG suggests growth may justify the multiple, and the price-to-sales score of 1.7 shows revenue is valued richly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-11.4%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.06
Upside
+0.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Value at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Momentum at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Value at 3.8, Technical at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 9.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $48.10 stop level from current $51.72.
- P4Earnings Beat Before Report
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 50x from current 39.1x.