Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
ARX · Why this verdict
Why Accelerant (ARX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -214% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 60% YoY
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $638,285 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.88
Upside
+13.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.7, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.2, and Technical at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.88 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.