Value
8.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ARVN · Why this verdict
Why Arvinas (ARVN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Arvinas screens as attractively valued, with the value model citing a strong EV/EBITDA score and 76% implied upside to the average analyst target. Valuation breakdown | The value score, currently 8.6, holds or the stock closes some of the gap to the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive value scores on a clinical-stage biotech with negative earnings are often an artifact of applying traditional valuation multiples to a pre-profit business rather than a genuine signal of undervaluation. | ||
Arvinas' quality score of 2.6 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by cash burn equal to -223% of revenue and a failing Rule-of-40 score of -315. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows and the Piotroski F-Score, currently a weak 3.3, improves as pipeline assets progress toward commercialization. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep-pipeline biotechs routinely run negative on Rule-of-40 and Piotroski metrics while still delivering large returns on clinical catalysts, so a low quality score may not capture the real investment case. | ||
At a $0.5 billion market cap, Arvinas is flagged as below institutional reach, and the engine's asymmetry model shows a 3.92 risk/reward ratio with 58.8% modeled upside. Edge rationale | The stock re-rates higher as it grows past the institutional-constraint threshold or delivers a clinical catalyst that draws in new institutional buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterBeing below the institutional-reach threshold can also mean the stock stays under-followed and illiquid indefinitely, keeping the modeled upside from ever being realized. | ||
Arvinas has beaten estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including a 6.65% beat most recently, following a large -94.32% miss the quarter before. Earnings | The company returns to a more consistent beat pattern, avoiding a repeat of the large prior-quarter miss. | →Stable |
| CounterThe magnitude of the prior miss shows earnings volatility is high enough that a single beat doesn't guarantee a stable trend going forward. | ||
Despite trading below its 200-day moving average, the average itself is still rising at +0.9% per 30 days, which the engine classifies as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score, currently 5.7, holds above the 5.5 gate threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 81 reflects an overbought bear-market rally per the momentum notes, which often precedes renewed downside rather than a resumption of the uptrend. | ||
Arvinas screens as attractively valued, with the value model citing a strong EV/EBITDA score and 76% implied upside to the average analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score, currently 8.6, holds or the stock closes some of the gap to the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterAttractive value scores on a clinical-stage biotech with negative earnings are often an artifact of applying traditional valuation multiples to a pre-profit business rather than a genuine signal of undervaluation.
Arvinas' quality score of 2.6 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by cash burn equal to -223% of revenue and a failing Rule-of-40 score of -315.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows and the Piotroski F-Score, currently a weak 3.3, improves as pipeline assets progress toward commercialization.
CounterDeep-pipeline biotechs routinely run negative on Rule-of-40 and Piotroski metrics while still delivering large returns on clinical catalysts, so a low quality score may not capture the real investment case.
At a $0.5 billion market cap, Arvinas is flagged as below institutional reach, and the engine's asymmetry model shows a 3.92 risk/reward ratio with 58.8% modeled upside.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates higher as it grows past the institutional-constraint threshold or delivers a clinical catalyst that draws in new institutional buyers.
CounterBeing below the institutional-reach threshold can also mean the stock stays under-followed and illiquid indefinitely, keeping the modeled upside from ever being realized.
Arvinas has beaten estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including a 6.65% beat most recently, following a large -94.32% miss the quarter before.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to a more consistent beat pattern, avoiding a repeat of the large prior-quarter miss.
CounterThe magnitude of the prior miss shows earnings volatility is high enough that a single beat doesn't guarantee a stable trend going forward.
Despite trading below its 200-day moving average, the average itself is still rising at +0.9% per 30 days, which the engine classifies as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score, currently 5.7, holds above the 5.5 gate threshold.
CounterAn RSI of 81 reflects an overbought bear-market rally per the momentum notes, which often precedes renewed downside rather than a resumption of the uptrend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arvinas screens cheap on traditional value metrics with meaningful modeled upside, but weak quality metrics, heavy cash burn, and volatile earnings temper the case for a small, institutionally under-followed biotech.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -223% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -315 (fail)
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.1 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $518,078 (0.095% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 132%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.71
Upside
+55.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.5, and Momentum at 5.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Quality at 2.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractively Valued Vs Target
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.6, or implied upside to analyst target falls below 20% from the current 76%.
- P2Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifCash burn exceeds -300% of revenue, worsening from the current -223%.
- P3Institutionally Constrained Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5, down from the current 3.92.
- P4Volatile Earnings Pattern
Trip ifBeat count over the trailing 4 quarters falls below 2, down from the current 3.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope falls below 0% per 30 days, reversing from the current +0.9%.