Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
ARCC · Why this verdict
Why Ares Capital (ARCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 8.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 1022.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.68
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Technical at 6.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Catalyst at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.