Value
8.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ANGO · Why this verdict
Why AngioDynamics (ANGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AngioDynamics screens below the quality floor, with only moderate free cash flow margins (about 4%) and no identified competitive moat, despite otherwise being free-cash-flow positive. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin should expand from the current ~4% level over the next 12 months for the business case to catch up with the bullish technical setup. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four reported quarters with zero misses, which argues operating execution is improving even though margin quality still lags. | ||
The stock has formed a bullish breakout setup — a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI near 65, and MACD turning positive — alongside rising on-balance volume that confirms accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The breakout should hold, with price remaining above its short and long-term moving averages and on-balance volume continuing to rise over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions positioning is skewed heavily toward puts, with a put/call ratio of 2.67, at odds with a clean bullish breakout read. | ||
AngioDynamics has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 78%, and reports again in just 10 days. Earnings | The beat streak should extend, with the company posting another positive EPS surprise (above 0%) at the upcoming print. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility is elevated at about 90% ahead of the print, signaling the market is pricing a large move in either direction, so the beat streak is no guarantee against a post-earnings reversal. | ||
Options positioning is unusually skewed toward puts, with a put/call ratio of 2.67, well above a balanced reading, even as the stock trades in a bullish breakout setup. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize back toward parity over the next 12 months if the bullish setup is validated by the market. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets still imply substantial upside of about 38%, a bullish signal that could explain why the heavy put positioning is more hedging than a directional bearish bet. | ||
AngioDynamics screens below the quality floor, with only moderate free cash flow margins (about 4%) and no identified competitive moat, despite otherwise being free-cash-flow positive.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin should expand from the current ~4% level over the next 12 months for the business case to catch up with the bullish technical setup.
CounterThe company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four reported quarters with zero misses, which argues operating execution is improving even though margin quality still lags.
The stock has formed a bullish breakout setup — a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI near 65, and MACD turning positive — alongside rising on-balance volume that confirms accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The breakout should hold, with price remaining above its short and long-term moving averages and on-balance volume continuing to rise over the next 12 months.
CounterOptions positioning is skewed heavily toward puts, with a put/call ratio of 2.67, at odds with a clean bullish breakout read.
AngioDynamics has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 78%, and reports again in just 10 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend, with the company posting another positive EPS surprise (above 0%) at the upcoming print.
CounterImplied volatility is elevated at about 90% ahead of the print, signaling the market is pricing a large move in either direction, so the beat streak is no guarantee against a post-earnings reversal.
Options positioning is unusually skewed toward puts, with a put/call ratio of 2.67, well above a balanced reading, even as the stock trades in a bullish breakout setup.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize back toward parity over the next 12 months if the bullish setup is validated by the market.
CounterAnalyst price targets still imply substantial upside of about 38%, a bullish signal that could explain why the heavy put positioning is more hedging than a directional bearish bet.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AngioDynamics pairs a bullish technical breakout and a three-quarter earnings beat streak — with another print in just 10 days — against a business quality score that sits below the engine's floor and options positioning that is unusually skewed toward puts, making this a momentum-and-catalyst trade rather than a quality-driven one.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 2.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 5.5 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.06
Upside
+19.4%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Insider at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 3.8, Growth at 4.7, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow margin exceeds 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Bullish Breakout Setup
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next reported quarter, breaking the current 3-quarter beat streak.
- P4Elevated Put Call Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.2 from the current 2.67, indicating the defensive positioning has normalized.