Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
- ▸Attractively valued
AMX · Why this verdict
Why America Movil (AMX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A well-valued telecom franchise with excellent cash conversion and positive price momentum has nonetheless missed earnings consensus in three of the last four quarters, and the risk/reward geometry at current levels is unfavorable; the setup calls for patience until execution improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13 times alongside a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.16 positions the stock in the attractively valued tier relative to telecom services peers — a margin of safety that would provide fundamental support if the earnings miss pattern corrects. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16 times as earnings estimates are revised upward following improved quarterly execution. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA compressed multiple in a leveraged telecom can persist or deepen if earnings keep missing; low multiples are not a catalyst on their own, and debt servicing at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7 constrains the capital allocation flexibility that would otherwise support a re-rating. | ||
The company has failed to meet or exceed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with negative surprises ranging from 2% to 17%, and recorded zero beats in the trailing year; the average earnings surprise across the period is approximately negative 8%. Earnings | Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one in-line quarter shows the company can at least meet expectations; if analysts reset consensus to a more achievable level following recent misses, the reported pattern may appear more severe than the underlying business fundamentally warrants. | ||
With 2.6% upside to the take-profit target against 5.7% of downside, the reward-to-risk ratio sits at 0.46 — far below the 1.5-to-1 bar for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not support adding or initiating exposure at current levels. Price targets | Setup becomes actionable if price resets to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% and the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf earnings execution improves and analysts revise price targets upward, available upside widens without requiring a price pullback; a target revision of even 10% would materially change the entry geometry. | ||
Free cash flow is equal to 160% of reported net income, signaling genuine cash generation well in excess of accounting profits, supported by a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 — a quality indicator that argues the business is more durable than the earnings miss streak alone would imply. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 120% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the high conversion rate is structural rather than a one-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterDebt-to-equity of 1.7 attracts an explicit risk penalty; if debt service absorbs a rising share of that free cash flow, the headline conversion rate overstates freely available capital and the quality advantage narrows. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13 times alongside a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.16 positions the stock in the attractively valued tier relative to telecom services peers — a margin of safety that would provide fundamental support if the earnings miss pattern corrects.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 16 times as earnings estimates are revised upward following improved quarterly execution.
CounterA compressed multiple in a leveraged telecom can persist or deepen if earnings keep missing; low multiples are not a catalyst on their own, and debt servicing at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7 constrains the capital allocation flexibility that would otherwise support a re-rating.
The company has failed to meet or exceed consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with negative surprises ranging from 2% to 17%, and recorded zero beats in the trailing year; the average earnings surprise across the period is approximately negative 8%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterThe one in-line quarter shows the company can at least meet expectations; if analysts reset consensus to a more achievable level following recent misses, the reported pattern may appear more severe than the underlying business fundamentally warrants.
With 2.6% upside to the take-profit target against 5.7% of downside, the reward-to-risk ratio sits at 0.46 — far below the 1.5-to-1 bar for a conviction entry — meaning the position geometry does not support adding or initiating exposure at current levels.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Setup becomes actionable if price resets to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% and the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5.
CounterIf earnings execution improves and analysts revise price targets upward, available upside widens without requiring a price pullback; a target revision of even 10% would materially change the entry geometry.
Free cash flow is equal to 160% of reported net income, signaling genuine cash generation well in excess of accounting profits, supported by a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 — a quality indicator that argues the business is more durable than the earnings miss streak alone would imply.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 120% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the high conversion rate is structural rather than a one-period event.
CounterDebt-to-equity of 1.7 attracts an explicit risk penalty; if debt service absorbs a rising share of that free cash flow, the headline conversion rate overstates freely available capital and the quality advantage narrows.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 8.5 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 183% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:103d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.74
Upside
+10.5%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Technical at 4.0, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss pattern.
- P2Limited Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to take-profit target expands above 10% while downside remains below 8%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.25.
- P3Attractive Valuation Profile
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 18 times without a corresponding increase in consensus revenue growth estimates above 10%.
- P4Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.