Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
- ▸Attractively valued
AMRC · Why this verdict
Why Ameresco (AMRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock has reached a technically oversold extreme—RSI at 28, below all moving averages in a death cross formation—while analyst consensus implies approximately 52% upside, but free cash flow is deeply negative at a magnitude equivalent to nearly 700% of reported earnings, business quality sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, and the most recent quarter produced an earnings miss; the 200-day average continues to slope upward at roughly 5.5% over thirty days, leaving open the possibility this is a pullback within a longer-term uptrend, though the quality and momentum concerns dominate today.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is deeply negative—flagged as a red flag at a magnitude equivalent to approximately 700% of reported net income—meaning the business is consuming far more cash than its income statement implies, a dislocation compounded by a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no demonstrable competitive moat, placing quality well below the 4.0 minimum investment-grade threshold. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI ratio recovering to less negative than -100% for 2 consecutive quarters would indicate the gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation is beginning to close. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the four prior quarters produced earnings beats, suggesting the accrual-based income stream is broadly tracking expectations; if cash collection improves, the mismatch between reported income and free cash flow may narrow as the business scales. | ||
RSI has dropped to 28—deeply oversold territory—below all moving averages in a death cross formation with bearish MACD, indicating capitulation risk; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to slope upward at approximately 5.5% over thirty days, leaving open the possibility this is a temporary pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovering above 40 and price reclaiming the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks would confirm the pullback has run its course. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeath crosses, bearish MACD, and RSI at 28 with no reversal signal yet suggest price may overshoot further to the downside before a recovery; the rising slope of the 200-day average provides directional support but does not set an immediate price floor. | ||
The analyst consensus prices the stock approximately 52% above its current level, and the risk/reward structure shows approximately 32.6% headroom to the consensus-derived target—a meaningful potential recovery for investors with the risk tolerance to hold through the current technical distress. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst target upgrades or new initiations sustaining consensus upside above 52% over the next two quarters would validate that the sell-side thesis is intact. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light, which reduces the statistical weight of the consensus; a small number of optimistic participants may not reflect broader institutional conviction, and the 52% target may prove aspirational if the FCF deficit and earnings miss signal worsening fundamentals. | ||
Following three consecutive positive quarters—including a 274% beat in the oldest of those periods—the most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 14%, breaking the established cadence and raising questions about near-term execution consistency. Earnings | A return to a positive earnings surprise in the next reporting cycle would re-establish credibility; a second consecutive miss would confirm the trend reversal is more than a one-off. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThree quarters of beats before the most recent miss suggests execution discipline has generally been intact; a single miss following a string of outsized beats is consistent with the bar having been raised, not necessarily with operational deterioration. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative—flagged as a red flag at a magnitude equivalent to approximately 700% of reported net income—meaning the business is consuming far more cash than its income statement implies, a dislocation compounded by a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no demonstrable competitive moat, placing quality well below the 4.0 minimum investment-grade threshold.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI ratio recovering to less negative than -100% for 2 consecutive quarters would indicate the gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation is beginning to close.
CounterThree of the four prior quarters produced earnings beats, suggesting the accrual-based income stream is broadly tracking expectations; if cash collection improves, the mismatch between reported income and free cash flow may narrow as the business scales.
RSI has dropped to 28—deeply oversold territory—below all moving averages in a death cross formation with bearish MACD, indicating capitulation risk; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to slope upward at approximately 5.5% over thirty days, leaving open the possibility this is a temporary pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovering above 40 and price reclaiming the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks would confirm the pullback has run its course.
CounterDeath crosses, bearish MACD, and RSI at 28 with no reversal signal yet suggest price may overshoot further to the downside before a recovery; the rising slope of the 200-day average provides directional support but does not set an immediate price floor.
The analyst consensus prices the stock approximately 52% above its current level, and the risk/reward structure shows approximately 32.6% headroom to the consensus-derived target—a meaningful potential recovery for investors with the risk tolerance to hold through the current technical distress.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst target upgrades or new initiations sustaining consensus upside above 52% over the next two quarters would validate that the sell-side thesis is intact.
CounterCoverage is light, which reduces the statistical weight of the consensus; a small number of optimistic participants may not reflect broader institutional conviction, and the 52% target may prove aspirational if the FCF deficit and earnings miss signal worsening fundamentals.
Following three consecutive positive quarters—including a 274% beat in the oldest of those periods—the most recent quarter produced a miss of approximately 14%, breaking the established cadence and raising questions about near-term execution consistency.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- A return to a positive earnings surprise in the next reporting cycle would re-establish credibility; a second consecutive miss would confirm the trend reversal is more than a one-off.
CounterThree quarters of beats before the most recent miss suggests execution discipline has generally been intact; a single miss following a string of outsized beats is consistent with the bar having been raised, not necessarily with operational deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.4 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1311% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 104%
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,890,622 (0.175% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 1.3 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.54
- ▸High IV: 101%
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
6.89
Upside
+77.3%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Sentiment at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of 6.89.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 7.1, and Insider at 7.1; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.5, Peer rank at 2.3, and Quality at 2.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Fcf Deficit Quality Below Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (FCF/NI ratio rises above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Technical Oversold Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifRSI recovers above 40 and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P3Analyst Consensus 52pct Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus upside falls below 15% from the current 52% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Most Recent Miss After Strong Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise returns above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.