Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
AMPH · Why this verdict
Why Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Amphastar trades at a steep discount to what its business supports, with a forward P/E near 6.5x and a PEG ratio of just 0.08, levels the data flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The value score should keep ranking well ahead of peers and the discount should narrow through the next 12 months as the market re-rates the shares toward peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterThe tracked price target has already been reached, which suggests the market may already be pricing in most of the near-term upside despite the low headline multiple. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining roughly 5.3% per month, alongside falling on-balance volume that points to distribution rather than accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The downtrend should persist, with price staying below the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope remaining negative over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own setup read flags an early recovery signal — despite the death cross, MACD is improving and RSI sits near 45, which could mark the start of a turn rather than a continuation of the decline. | ||
Amphastar has missed earnings estimates in each of its last two reported quarters, by 40.5% and 20.5% respectively, and near-term estimates have been cut roughly 30% over the past month. Earnings | Results should return to at least in-line, with the EPS surprise moving back to 0% or better in the next reported quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe underlying business still shows excellent cash conversion at 130% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, fundamental signals of health that could support a rebound in reported earnings even after the recent misses. | ||
Short interest sits at roughly 18% of float while the shares remain below their long-term trend, indicating a meaningful share of the market is positioned for continued weakness. Key risks | Short interest should decline meaningfully from the current ~18% level as bearish positioning unwinds if the stock stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider activity has been neutral over the past 90 days with no net insider selling, which tempers the bearish read from short interest and technical weakness alone. | ||
Amphastar trades at a steep discount to what its business supports, with a forward P/E near 6.5x and a PEG ratio of just 0.08, levels the data flags as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should keep ranking well ahead of peers and the discount should narrow through the next 12 months as the market re-rates the shares toward peer multiples.
CounterThe tracked price target has already been reached, which suggests the market may already be pricing in most of the near-term upside despite the low headline multiple.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining roughly 5.3% per month, alongside falling on-balance volume that points to distribution rather than accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The downtrend should persist, with price staying below the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope remaining negative over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine's own setup read flags an early recovery signal — despite the death cross, MACD is improving and RSI sits near 45, which could mark the start of a turn rather than a continuation of the decline.
Amphastar has missed earnings estimates in each of its last two reported quarters, by 40.5% and 20.5% respectively, and near-term estimates have been cut roughly 30% over the past month.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Results should return to at least in-line, with the EPS surprise moving back to 0% or better in the next reported quarter.
CounterThe underlying business still shows excellent cash conversion at 130% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, fundamental signals of health that could support a rebound in reported earnings even after the recent misses.
Short interest sits at roughly 18% of float while the shares remain below their long-term trend, indicating a meaningful share of the market is positioned for continued weakness.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully from the current ~18% level as bearish positioning unwinds if the stock stabilizes.
CounterInsider activity has been neutral over the past 90 days with no net insider selling, which tempers the bearish read from short interest and technical weakness alone.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amphastar screens statistically cheap on both earnings and growth-adjusted multiples, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with back-to-back earnings misses and falling estimates, so the re-rating case depends on stabilizing both fundamentals and the chart before the deep discount can close.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 18%
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+1.4%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.4; weakest: Momentum at 2.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.4, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Catalyst at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Mispricing
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 5x as the shares decline further, confirming continued de-rating instead of the expected recovery toward peer multiples.
- P2Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes back above the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope turns positive for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Short Interest Below Trend
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float from the current 18%.