Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
AMN · Why this verdict
Why AMN Healthcare Services (AMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue growth is exceptionally strong, up roughly 100% year-over-year, positioning the company as an industry growth leader relative to peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain a standout versus peers over the next 12 months, sustaining industry-leading growth momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth off a small or volatile base is difficult to sustain, and this growth dimension's confidence is rated only moderate, meaning the underlying durability is not fully verified. | ||
Business quality screens below the minimum threshold needed to support a position, with no clear competitive moat identified. Bear case | The quality score should recover back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as returns and margin metrics improve. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a moat may be structural to this business rather than a temporary condition, meaning quality could remain persistently below the required bar. | ||
Momentum has pushed the stock into overbought territory, with the relative strength index near 72, even as it holds above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | The overbought reading should cool into a more neutral range over the next 12 months without a sharp reversal, allowing the uptrend to continue. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought conditions this extended frequently resolve through a sharp pullback rather than a gradual cooling, risking a fast reversal of recent gains. | ||
Insider transactions have turned bearish, with net selling over the past 90 days, though the dollar amount is small relative to market value. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish over the next 12 months as net insider activity shifts away from selling. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is explicitly low-materiality per the data, at just over $114,000, so it may carry little informational value about management's outlook. | ||
Recent earnings execution has been solid, with three beats against a single miss over the last four quarters and average surprises well above expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The beat rate should hold at or above 75% over the next 12 months, consistent with the recent execution track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss following a run of strong beats, which could mark the start of a deteriorating trend rather than a one-off. | ||
Revenue growth is exceptionally strong, up roughly 100% year-over-year, positioning the company as an industry growth leader relative to peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain a standout versus peers over the next 12 months, sustaining industry-leading growth momentum.
CounterTriple-digit growth off a small or volatile base is difficult to sustain, and this growth dimension's confidence is rated only moderate, meaning the underlying durability is not fully verified.
Business quality screens below the minimum threshold needed to support a position, with no clear competitive moat identified.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should recover back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as returns and margin metrics improve.
CounterThe absence of a moat may be structural to this business rather than a temporary condition, meaning quality could remain persistently below the required bar.
Momentum has pushed the stock into overbought territory, with the relative strength index near 72, even as it holds above its 200-day average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The overbought reading should cool into a more neutral range over the next 12 months without a sharp reversal, allowing the uptrend to continue.
CounterOverbought conditions this extended frequently resolve through a sharp pullback rather than a gradual cooling, risking a fast reversal of recent gains.
Insider transactions have turned bearish, with net selling over the past 90 days, though the dollar amount is small relative to market value.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should turn neutral or bullish over the next 12 months as net insider activity shifts away from selling.
CounterThe selling is explicitly low-materiality per the data, at just over $114,000, so it may carry little informational value about management's outlook.
Recent earnings execution has been solid, with three beats against a single miss over the last four quarters and average surprises well above expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at or above 75% over the next 12 months, consistent with the recent execution track record.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss following a run of strong beats, which could mark the start of a deteriorating trend rather than a one-off.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMN's exceptional revenue growth and solid recent earnings execution stand out, but a quality score below the required threshold, overbought momentum, and bearish insider selling warrant caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 100% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $114,362 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.42
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.79
Upside
-19.0%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.5, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Sentiment at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY.
- P2Quality Below Required Floor
Trip ifQuality score exceeds 4.0 from the current 2.7.
- P3Overbought Momentum Condition
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 5.7.
- P4Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net insider buying exceeding $200,000 in a rolling 90-day period.
- P5Solid Recent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 reported quarters.