Value
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.82
AME · Why this verdict
Why AMETEK (AME) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMETEK operates a high-quality industrial franchise with a wide economic moat, 20% operating margins, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging nearly 5% above estimates; the concern is not the business but the price — at a forward multiple of 26.2 times and a PEG near 3.0, with the stock just 1.2% below the analyst consensus target, the risk/reward is thin and the position warrants a trim.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business demonstrates wide economic moat characteristics supported by 20% operating margins, a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, and strong returns on both assets and equity — a combination signaling durable competitive advantages that peers in specialty industrial machinery have historically struggled to replicate. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains at or above 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over the next four quarters, confirming that the moat is intact under current operating conditions. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the moat softens — whether through pricing pressure in specialty industrial end markets, increased competitive entry, or a cyclical demand contraction — the margin profile would narrow faster than trailing data implies, and the premium assigned to moat quality would compress sharply. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 26.2 times and a PEG ratio of 2.98, the stock screens expensive relative to its growth rate and to industrial machinery peers, leaving only 1.2% of headroom to the analyst consensus target and almost no margin for error at current prices. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates such that the forward multiple compresses below 20 times over the next 12 months without a decline in the share price, validating that earnings are outrunning the premium. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA rich multiple can persist for a wide-moat, consistent-compounder if investors continue to assign a scarcity premium to high-quality industrial franchises with durable margins; valuation discipline alone may be an insufficient reason to exit if the fundamental delivery continues. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters — delivering $1.97, $2.01, $1.89, and $1.78 against estimates of $1.90, $1.94, $1.76, and $1.69 respectively — a track record of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that reflects disciplined guidance management. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in each of the next two quarters with a positive surprise percentage, extending the streak to six consecutive beats. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats at roughly 5% average can normalize quickly; any deceleration in industrial end-market demand or margin pressure from input costs could shift the next print to an in-line result, resetting the execution premium embedded in the current multiple. | ||
A golden cross is confirmed, the stock trades above all major moving averages, on-balance volume is rising, and the MACD is bullish — a confluence of technical signals indicating that buying pressure has dominated through the recent advance and the setup qualifies as a breakout. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues trending higher for the next two quarters, indicating that the institutional accumulation underpinning the breakout remains intact. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTechnical breakout setups at full valuations are particularly vulnerable to re-rating: a single earnings miss at a 26.2 times forward multiple could produce a correction large enough to break the golden cross and trigger systematic momentum selling. | ||
The business demonstrates wide economic moat characteristics supported by 20% operating margins, a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, and strong returns on both assets and equity — a combination signaling durable competitive advantages that peers in specialty industrial machinery have historically struggled to replicate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains at or above 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over the next four quarters, confirming that the moat is intact under current operating conditions.
CounterIf the moat softens — whether through pricing pressure in specialty industrial end markets, increased competitive entry, or a cyclical demand contraction — the margin profile would narrow faster than trailing data implies, and the premium assigned to moat quality would compress sharply.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 26.2 times and a PEG ratio of 2.98, the stock screens expensive relative to its growth rate and to industrial machinery peers, leaving only 1.2% of headroom to the analyst consensus target and almost no margin for error at current prices.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates such that the forward multiple compresses below 20 times over the next 12 months without a decline in the share price, validating that earnings are outrunning the premium.
CounterA rich multiple can persist for a wide-moat, consistent-compounder if investors continue to assign a scarcity premium to high-quality industrial franchises with durable margins; valuation discipline alone may be an insufficient reason to exit if the fundamental delivery continues.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters — delivering $1.97, $2.01, $1.89, and $1.78 against estimates of $1.90, $1.94, $1.76, and $1.69 respectively — a track record of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that reflects disciplined guidance management.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in each of the next two quarters with a positive surprise percentage, extending the streak to six consecutive beats.
CounterFour consecutive beats at roughly 5% average can normalize quickly; any deceleration in industrial end-market demand or margin pressure from input costs could shift the next print to an in-line result, resetting the execution premium embedded in the current multiple.
A golden cross is confirmed, the stock trades above all major moving averages, on-balance volume is rising, and the MACD is bullish — a confluence of technical signals indicating that buying pressure has dominated through the recent advance and the setup qualifies as a breakout.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues trending higher for the next two quarters, indicating that the institutional accumulation underpinning the breakout remains intact.
CounterTechnical breakout setups at full valuations are particularly vulnerable to re-rating: a single earnings miss at a 26.2 times forward multiple could produce a correction large enough to break the golden cross and trigger systematic momentum selling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $655,032 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 4.5 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $100
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Quality at 6.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Value at 3.9, Technical at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Margin Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters (from the current 20% level).
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Limits Entry
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 20x from the current 26.2x over the next 12 months.
- P4Momentum Breakout Confirmation
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and RSI drops below 45 for 2 consecutive weeks.