Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
AMCX · Why this verdict
Why AMC Global Media (AMCX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a deeply discounted valuation, with a forward P/E near 6.9x and a PEG ratio of just 0.10, screening as statistically cheap relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow over the next 12 months as the multiple re-rates toward peer averages, consistent with its already-attractive standing versus peers. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-digit forward multiple can also reflect a genuine business impairment, since the leverage penalty and below-average quality flag suggest the market may be pricing in structural risk rather than a temporary discount. | ||
Elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.9x, is weighing on the overall quality assessment despite otherwise strong cash conversion. Bear case | Leverage should decline over the next 12 months, with the debt-to-equity ratio falling back toward parity as debt is paid down. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow near 10x net income, so the balance sheet risk may be overstated and the current leverage could persist without covenant stress. | ||
Volume flows show distribution, with on-balance volume falling even as the shares hold above their 200-day average, a divergence that raises the risk of a near-term momentum stall. Momentum breakdown | Volume flows should shift back to accumulation, with on-balance volume turning higher over the next 12 months if the uptrend is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe shares remain above their 200-day moving average and have cleared a bullish chart setup, so the falling volume may simply reflect quieter trading rather than distribution ahead of a reversal. | ||
The recent earnings track record is weak, with three misses against a single beat over the last four quarters, undercutting confidence in near-term execution. Earnings | The beat rate should improve over the next 12 months, with the company returning to at least a majority-beat cadence across quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterA string of misses following a period of overly optimistic estimates can also signal a broken business model rather than a temporary guidance-reset issue. | ||
Short interest is elevated at 21% of float, indicating a meaningfully crowded bearish position that could amplify volatility in either direction. Key risks | Short interest should decline toward more typical levels below 10% of float over the next 12 months if bearish conviction fades. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistently high short interest can also reflect informed bearish positioning around structural risks, such as leverage and weak quality, that simply have not yet played out. | ||
The stock trades at a deeply discounted valuation, with a forward P/E near 6.9x and a PEG ratio of just 0.10, screening as statistically cheap relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow over the next 12 months as the multiple re-rates toward peer averages, consistent with its already-attractive standing versus peers.
CounterA single-digit forward multiple can also reflect a genuine business impairment, since the leverage penalty and below-average quality flag suggest the market may be pricing in structural risk rather than a temporary discount.
Elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.9x, is weighing on the overall quality assessment despite otherwise strong cash conversion.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage should decline over the next 12 months, with the debt-to-equity ratio falling back toward parity as debt is paid down.
CounterCash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow near 10x net income, so the balance sheet risk may be overstated and the current leverage could persist without covenant stress.
Volume flows show distribution, with on-balance volume falling even as the shares hold above their 200-day average, a divergence that raises the risk of a near-term momentum stall.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Volume flows should shift back to accumulation, with on-balance volume turning higher over the next 12 months if the uptrend is durable.
CounterThe shares remain above their 200-day moving average and have cleared a bullish chart setup, so the falling volume may simply reflect quieter trading rather than distribution ahead of a reversal.
The recent earnings track record is weak, with three misses against a single beat over the last four quarters, undercutting confidence in near-term execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should improve over the next 12 months, with the company returning to at least a majority-beat cadence across quarterly reports.
CounterA string of misses following a period of overly optimistic estimates can also signal a broken business model rather than a temporary guidance-reset issue.
Short interest is elevated at 21% of float, indicating a meaningfully crowded bearish position that could amplify volatility in either direction.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline toward more typical levels below 10% of float over the next 12 months if bearish conviction fades.
CounterPersistently high short interest can also reflect informed bearish positioning around structural risks, such as leverage and weak quality, that simply have not yet played out.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMCX screens statistically cheap with strong cash conversion, but elevated leverage, a weak recent earnings track record, and crowded short positioning keep the setup speculative despite the valuation support.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.51
Upside
-35.2%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3, MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Growth at 6.0, and Insider at 6.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 5x, signaling the market prices in further deterioration rather than a re-rating.
- P2Elevated Leverage Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.0x.
- P3Fragile Volume Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6.5 from the current 4.6.
- P4Weak Earnings Track Record
Trip ifEarnings beat rate rises above 50% over the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Crowded Short Position
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float.