Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
ALV · Why this verdict
Why Autoliv (ALV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autoliv has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with consistent positive surprises averaging nearly 10% and trades at a forward earnings multiple of 10.5x with a PEG of 0.37 — a meaningful discount to its growth rate; however, momentum sits just below the threshold for a constructive technical setup, top-ten customers account for 70% of revenue, and only about 3% of upside remains to the price target, keeping the near-term risk/reward thin even as the longer-term franchise quality is evident.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters, with the three most recent beats clustering tightly around an 11% upside surprise — a pattern suggestive of reliable, repeatable guidance discipline rather than occasional outperformance. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters and the average surprise remains above 5%, confirming that guidance discipline is structural rather than coincidental. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour beats with narrow dispersion can reflect a period when consensus was set conservatively; if analysts recalibrate their models upward following continued beats, the positive surprise rate could narrow or reverse without any underlying business deterioration. | ||
A forward earnings multiple of 10.5x alongside a PEG ratio of 0.37 means the market is pricing the stock at well under half its earnings growth rate — a discount that peers on both price-to-earnings and return-on-equity screens consistently show to be unusually wide. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward 15x as the earnings beat streak continues and the technical setup resolves, partially closing the discount to growth. | →Stable |
| CounterAuto-parts companies structurally trade at low multiples because their earnings are cyclical and closely tied to global vehicle production volumes; the apparent discount may simply price in the inherent cyclicality rather than representing a genuine undervaluation. | ||
The ten largest customers account for 70% of revenue, creating material exposure to the loss, renegotiation, or platform-level shift of even a single major account — a structural risk that reduces pricing power and amplifies cyclical sensitivity during industry downturns. Bear case | Top-ten customer revenue concentration falls below 60% over the next two annual reporting periods, reflecting diversification into new accounts or geographies. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep integration with major global automotive manufacturers often reflects switching-cost advantages rather than vulnerability; customers that have qualified a supplier for safety-critical components rarely switch without substantial cost and certification burden. | ||
Price momentum sits just below the 4.5 threshold for a constructive technical setup, with on-balance volume trending lower despite the stock remaining above its 200-day moving average — a split signal indicating that while the longer-term trend is intact, near-term buying conviction is absent. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turns positive and holds for four or more consecutive weeks while RSI rises above 55, signaling that distribution has given way to accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock above its 200-day moving average with momentum approaching but not yet at the minimum threshold is closer to entry-ready than it might appear; positive news flow or an earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters, with the three most recent beats clustering tightly around an 11% upside surprise — a pattern suggestive of reliable, repeatable guidance discipline rather than occasional outperformance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters and the average surprise remains above 5%, confirming that guidance discipline is structural rather than coincidental.
CounterFour beats with narrow dispersion can reflect a period when consensus was set conservatively; if analysts recalibrate their models upward following continued beats, the positive surprise rate could narrow or reverse without any underlying business deterioration.
A forward earnings multiple of 10.5x alongside a PEG ratio of 0.37 means the market is pricing the stock at well under half its earnings growth rate — a discount that peers on both price-to-earnings and return-on-equity screens consistently show to be unusually wide.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward 15x as the earnings beat streak continues and the technical setup resolves, partially closing the discount to growth.
CounterAuto-parts companies structurally trade at low multiples because their earnings are cyclical and closely tied to global vehicle production volumes; the apparent discount may simply price in the inherent cyclicality rather than representing a genuine undervaluation.
The ten largest customers account for 70% of revenue, creating material exposure to the loss, renegotiation, or platform-level shift of even a single major account — a structural risk that reduces pricing power and amplifies cyclical sensitivity during industry downturns.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Top-ten customer revenue concentration falls below 60% over the next two annual reporting periods, reflecting diversification into new accounts or geographies.
CounterDeep integration with major global automotive manufacturers often reflects switching-cost advantages rather than vulnerability; customers that have qualified a supplier for safety-critical components rarely switch without substantial cost and certification burden.
Price momentum sits just below the 4.5 threshold for a constructive technical setup, with on-balance volume trending lower despite the stock remaining above its 200-day moving average — a split signal indicating that while the longer-term trend is intact, near-term buying conviction is absent.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns positive and holds for four or more consecutive weeks while RSI rises above 55, signaling that distribution has given way to accumulation.
CounterA stock above its 200-day moving average with momentum approaching but not yet at the minimum threshold is closer to entry-ready than it might appear; positive news flow or an earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.3 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 125% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 9.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.32
Upside
+2.3%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.40>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Sentiment at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Momentum at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Consistent Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P2Valuation Discount To Earnings Growth
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x or PEG ratio rises above 1.0, removing the valuation discount.
- P3Customer Concentration Top Ten
Trip ifTop-ten customer share of revenue falls below 55% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P4Tepid Momentum Volume Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and RSI rises above 55 for 4 or more consecutive weeks, confirming accumulation has replaced distribution.