Value
9.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
ALTI · Why this verdict
Why AlTi Global (ALTI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits at 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, with a weak 3/9 Piotroski score and no competitive moat. Bear case | The Piotroski score should improve above 3 out of 9 for the quality picture to stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterAn asset manager's quality metrics can be distorted by mark-to-market swings in managed assets rather than reflecting core operating health. | ||
The stock clears the asymmetry gate at a strong 7.1x with 106.8% modeled upside to the analyst target. Reward-to-risk math | Price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward the $7.65 take-profit target if the asymmetry holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 106.8% modeled upside on a small-cap asset manager increases the risk that the underlying analyst target is stale or thinly supported. | ||
Shares trade at an 8.4x forward P/E with a 0.06 PEG alongside 28% YoY revenue growth, an industry growth-leader combination. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay well below 0.5 and revenue growth should remain elevated for the value-plus-growth thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG in an asset manager can reflect market skepticism about the durability of a recent growth spike rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
An RSI of 78 signals an overbought bounce inside a still-confirmed downtrend, with the 30-day moving-average slope at -3.9%, raising the risk this is a bear-market rally rather than a durable reversal. Momentum breakdown | The moving-average slope should turn positive for the bounce to be considered a genuine trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume during the bounce could indicate genuine accumulation ahead of a durable reversal rather than a fleeting rally. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters with an outsized average surprise of 116%. Earnings | The beat rate should continue at the next report in 37 days for the execution thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA 116% average surprise driven by a single outsized beat quarter may not be representative of typical ongoing performance. | ||
Quality sits at 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, with a weak 3/9 Piotroski score and no competitive moat.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should improve above 3 out of 9 for the quality picture to stabilize.
CounterAn asset manager's quality metrics can be distorted by mark-to-market swings in managed assets rather than reflecting core operating health.
The stock clears the asymmetry gate at a strong 7.1x with 106.8% modeled upside to the analyst target.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward the $7.65 take-profit target if the asymmetry holds over the next 12 months.
CounterA 106.8% modeled upside on a small-cap asset manager increases the risk that the underlying analyst target is stale or thinly supported.
Shares trade at an 8.4x forward P/E with a 0.06 PEG alongside 28% YoY revenue growth, an industry growth-leader combination.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay well below 0.5 and revenue growth should remain elevated for the value-plus-growth thesis to hold.
CounterA very low PEG in an asset manager can reflect market skepticism about the durability of a recent growth spike rather than a genuine bargain.
An RSI of 78 signals an overbought bounce inside a still-confirmed downtrend, with the 30-day moving-average slope at -3.9%, raising the risk this is a bear-market rally rather than a durable reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The moving-average slope should turn positive for the bounce to be considered a genuine trend reversal.
CounterRising on-balance volume during the bounce could indicate genuine accumulation ahead of a durable reversal rather than a fleeting rally.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters with an outsized average surprise of 116%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should continue at the next report in 37 days for the execution thesis to hold.
CounterA 116% average surprise driven by a single outsized beat quarter may not be representative of typical ongoing performance.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AlTi Global clears the engine's asymmetry bar with 107% modeled upside and a cheap 8.4x forward P/E against 28% growth, but the current RSI-78 bounce sits inside a still-confirmed downtrend and quality remains below the investable floor with a weak 3/9 Piotroski score.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.2x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 149%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.44
Upside
+111.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 9.4, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Technical at 3.2, and Momentum at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Passed High Asymmetry Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 2.0 from the current 7.12.
- P2Cheap Valuation With Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5 from the current 0.06.
- P3Overbought Bear Rally In Downtrend
Trip if30-day moving-average slope rises above 0%, ending the confirmed downtrend.
- P4Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 from the current 3.
- P5Strong Earnings Surprise History
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% from the current 116%.