Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ALMS · Why this verdict
Why Alumis (ALMS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2461% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -2551 (fail)
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 66%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
0.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.14
- ▸High IV: 154%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:8.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.96
Upside
+44.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Momentum at 8.7, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 0.3, Peer rank at 2.1, and Technical at 2.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.