Value
1.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
ALMR · Why this verdict
Why Alamar Biosciences (ALMR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alamar is a hypergrowth, wide-moat medical-device company whose price has already reached the analyst target, leaving an expensive valuation and heavy insider selling. The growth is real, but the price offers almost no margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is exceptional at 82% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $29.4M versus $16.2M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% year over year across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the earnings history covers a single reported quarter, so the 82% rate may not be a reliable trend. | ||
The company has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, though the overall quality score is only 4.8. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score should stay at 6 or higher and operating margin should move toward breakeven over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating and net margins both score 0.0 and the peer quality rank is near the bottom, so the moat has not yet produced profits. | ||
The $30.69 price is only 0.4% below the $30.80 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.02 against 15.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analysts should raise targets above the current price as growth continues, restoring meaningful upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage and no remaining distance to the target, any growth disappointment leaves the stock exposed to a 15.0% drop. | ||
Valuation is flagged as expensive, with a price-to-sales score of 0.0 and an overall value score of 3.0. Valuation breakdown | Growth should outpace the price so that the value score recovers above 5.0 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHypergrowth names often hold rich multiples for years, and the 82% growth rate may justify the premium. | ||
Insiders sold $5,949,983 (0.279% of market cap) across 16 transactions in 90 days with no purchases, the latest on 2026-10-20. Net value 90d | Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders view the stock as fairly priced. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt 0.279% of market cap the selling is moderate, and institutions are accumulating at the same time. | ||
Growth is exceptional at 82% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $29.4M versus $16.2M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% year over year across the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the earnings history covers a single reported quarter, so the 82% rate may not be a reliable trend.
The company has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, though the overall quality score is only 4.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should stay at 6 or higher and operating margin should move toward breakeven over 12 months.
CounterOperating and net margins both score 0.0 and the peer quality rank is near the bottom, so the moat has not yet produced profits.
The $30.69 price is only 0.4% below the $30.80 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.02 against 15.0% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets above the current price as growth continues, restoring meaningful upside.
CounterWith light analyst coverage and no remaining distance to the target, any growth disappointment leaves the stock exposed to a 15.0% drop.
Valuation is flagged as expensive, with a price-to-sales score of 0.0 and an overall value score of 3.0.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should outpace the price so that the value score recovers above 5.0 over 12 months.
CounterHypergrowth names often hold rich multiples for years, and the 82% growth rate may justify the premium.
Insiders sold $5,949,983 (0.279% of market cap) across 16 transactions in 90 days with no purchases, the latest on 2026-10-20.
↓DeterioratingNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders view the stock as fairly priced.
CounterAt 0.279% of market cap the selling is moderate, and institutions are accumulating at the same time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 82% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $24,772,838 (1.041% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.04%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-12.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Value at 1.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Value at 1.8, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 40% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Moat Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from current 7.
- P3Target Already Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $36 from current $30.80.
- P4Expensive Valuation
Trip ifValue score rises above 5.0 from current 3.0.
- P5Steady Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days falls below 0.1% of market cap from current 0.279%.