Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 87.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
ALAB · Why this verdict
Why Astera Labs (ALAB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 117 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 93% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 1.2 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $480,895,603 (0.764% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 110%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.60, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAITPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.66
Upside
-40.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.9) with weak momentum (3.5)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 3.96>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.9 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -2.66 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Momentum at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.66 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.