Value
9.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.48
- ▸Attractively valued
AKO-A · Why this verdict
Why Embotelladora Andina (AKO-A) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Embotelladora Andina's A shares screen as attractively valued with a PEG of 0.47 and volume accumulation above the 200-day moving average, while a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat track record provides a quality fundamental backdrop. However, the stock is effectively range-bound with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and an unfavorable 0.34-to-1 risk/reward — a setup that rewards patience in an existing position but does not support new exposure at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
On-balance volume is in a rising trend and the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, indicating that underlying demand is progressively outpacing supply on a cumulative basis and the longer-term trend remains intact. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues its rising trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum is at the minimum passing threshold and the setup is range-bound — the technical strength is marginal; any deterioration in volume accumulation or a close below the 200-day moving average could quickly shift the technical balance toward the bear case. | ||
At a PEG of 0.47, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, and the peer comparison highlights an attractive P/E versus the group — indicating the market has not fully priced in the earnings growth trajectory relative to what peers command. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward the peer average over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount, producing multiple-driven appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration. | →Stable |
| CounterThe valuation dimension carries a 0.33 confidence weight — the lowest in the deck — meaning the attractive PEG may reflect data sparseness rather than genuine mispricing; institutional investors may sustain a liquidity discount that keeps the multiple structurally below a fuller data set. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 reported periods, reflecting a pattern of consistent delivery above expectations that supports the quality of the earnings stream. Bull case | The company beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, maintaining the established beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe underlying earnings history reflects limited data recency for this name, which introduces uncertainty about whether the beat streak is representative of the current operating environment; a 1-in-4 miss rate also indicates expectations management is not perfect. | ||
The stock is in a range-bound technical pattern with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward of 0.34-to-1 — the geometry leaves insufficient reward for the 6.2% downside risk, making new entry unattractive at current prices. Price targets | The price target revises higher by at least 15% over the next 12 months, restoring a favorable risk/reward of at least 1.5-to-1 and justifying re-entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound environment with volume accumulation and low short interest can resolve upward if a fundamental catalyst emerges; the constrained near-term geometry does not mean the thesis is broken for a patient long-term holder. | ||
On-balance volume is in a rising trend and the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, indicating that underlying demand is progressively outpacing supply on a cumulative basis and the longer-term trend remains intact.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues its rising trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterMomentum is at the minimum passing threshold and the setup is range-bound — the technical strength is marginal; any deterioration in volume accumulation or a close below the 200-day moving average could quickly shift the technical balance toward the bear case.
At a PEG of 0.47, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, and the peer comparison highlights an attractive P/E versus the group — indicating the market has not fully priced in the earnings growth trajectory relative to what peers command.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward the peer average over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount, producing multiple-driven appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration.
CounterThe valuation dimension carries a 0.33 confidence weight — the lowest in the deck — meaning the attractive PEG may reflect data sparseness rather than genuine mispricing; institutional investors may sustain a liquidity discount that keeps the multiple structurally below a fuller data set.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 reported periods, reflecting a pattern of consistent delivery above expectations that supports the quality of the earnings stream.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, maintaining the established beat track record.
CounterThe underlying earnings history reflects limited data recency for this name, which introduces uncertainty about whether the beat streak is representative of the current operating environment; a 1-in-4 miss rate also indicates expectations management is not perfect.
The stock is in a range-bound technical pattern with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward of 0.34-to-1 — the geometry leaves insufficient reward for the 6.2% downside risk, making new entry unattractive at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The price target revises higher by at least 15% over the next 12 months, restoring a favorable risk/reward of at least 1.5-to-1 and justifying re-entry.
CounterA range-bound environment with volume accumulation and low short interest can resolve upward if a fundamental catalyst emerges; the constrained near-term geometry does not mean the thesis is broken for a patient long-term holder.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 5.5 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend: 5.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 9.4 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0, and Technical at 5.8; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Sentiment at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x from the current level, eliminating the valuation discount versus the peer group.
- P2Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
- P3Range Bound Exhausted Upside
Trip ifPrice target revises above $27 — more than 17% above the current $22.94 — restoring a favorable risk/reward for new entry.
- P4Volume Accumulation Above 200ma
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls to a declining trend and the stock closes below its 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.