Value
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 172.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.51
AIP · Why this verdict
Why Arteris (AIP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arteris is a fast-growing, free-cash-flow-positive semiconductor software name with large analyst upside, but heavy insider selling and weak momentum keep it a speculative position to avoid for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 46% year over year, with quarterly revenue reaching $24.1M versus $16.5M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 30% year over year across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and a forward P/E of 153.4x leaves no room for a slowdown. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 37% FCF margin and a Rule of 40 score of 83. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should remain above 25% while GAAP losses narrow over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGAAP losses persist, with the latest quarter's EPS of -$0.10 missing the -$0.04 estimate, so cash flow may be flattered by non-cash items. | ||
Insiders sold $19,147,608 (2.044% of market cap) across 40 transactions in 90 days with no purchases. Net value 90d | Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders believe the stock is undervalued. | →Stable |
| CounterFrequent small sales are often pre-scheduled plans for compensation, and institutions are accumulating at the same time. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.1 out of 10, with RSI at 26 and the stock below its 200-day average after a 62% drawdown. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as price stabilizes and rising volume accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising at +3.7% per 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend. | ||
The $19.06 price is 70.2% below the $32.44 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.11 against 13.7% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price should move materially toward the $32.44 target over 12 months while holding above the $17.73 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the stock's implied volatility of 103% means the stop can be hit long before any target is reached. | ||
Growth is strong at 46% year over year, with quarterly revenue reaching $24.1M versus $16.5M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 30% year over year across the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and a forward P/E of 153.4x leaves no room for a slowdown.
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 37% FCF margin and a Rule of 40 score of 83.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should remain above 25% while GAAP losses narrow over 12 months.
CounterGAAP losses persist, with the latest quarter's EPS of -$0.10 missing the -$0.04 estimate, so cash flow may be flattered by non-cash items.
Insiders sold $19,147,608 (2.044% of market cap) across 40 transactions in 90 days with no purchases.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders believe the stock is undervalued.
CounterFrequent small sales are often pre-scheduled plans for compensation, and institutions are accumulating at the same time.
Momentum is weak at 3.1 out of 10, with RSI at 26 and the stock below its 200-day average after a 62% drawdown.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as price stabilizes and rising volume accumulation continues.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising at +3.7% per 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend.
The $19.06 price is 70.2% below the $32.44 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.11 against 13.7% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move materially toward the $32.44 target over 12 months while holding above the $17.73 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the stock's implied volatility of 103% means the stop can be hit long before any target is reached.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 37%, FCF yield 2.9%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 83 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 46% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 74%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $19,147,608 (1.818% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- INSIDER:1.82%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.42
Upside
+51.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( INSIDER:1.82%=EXTREME, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Value at 3.7, Technical at 3.8, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 15% from current 37%.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days exceeds 5% of market cap from current 2.0%.
- P4Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.1.
- P5Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $17.73 stop level from current $19.06.