Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
AIIR · Why this verdict
Why Air Global (AIIR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Air Global is a cheaply valued, fast-growing small cap with insider buying and analyst upside, but its business quality is weak and the reward-to-risk is thin. It screens as a speculative position to avoid for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 1.8 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and zero scored margins. Bear case | Quality score should climb toward 4.0 and margins should turn positive over the next 12 months if the weakness is temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality scoring rests on thin data (confidence 0.71) and the peer quality rank is a neutral 5.0, so the low score may overstate the problem. | ||
The stock looks attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 15.9x and a PEG of 0.08. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay under about 20x as earnings grow, so the discount reflects growth rather than a falling price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG of 0.08 depends on extreme earnings growth that may not repeat, and valuation confidence is only 0.67. | ||
Insiders made 3 purchases worth $79,982 in the last 90 days with no sales, and institutions are accumulating. Total buy value 90d | Insider purchases should continue and sales should stay at zero while institutional holdings rise. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe purchases are tiny at 0.007% of market cap, so they carry little conviction signal. | ||
The $7.79 price is 17.3% below the $9.14 analyst target, against 14.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 1.19. Upside pct | Price should advance toward the $9.14 target without breaking the $7.24 stop level over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may not be reliable, and the 42% drawdown from the 52-week high shows how fast the price can fall. | ||
Earnings growth scores a maximum 10.0 out of 10, supporting the cheap valuation. Components | Earnings growth should remain strong enough to keep the growth score above 7 through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is just 0.33 and based on one component, so a single weak quarter could erase the score. | ||
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 1.8 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and zero scored margins.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb toward 4.0 and margins should turn positive over the next 12 months if the weakness is temporary.
CounterQuality scoring rests on thin data (confidence 0.71) and the peer quality rank is a neutral 5.0, so the low score may overstate the problem.
The stock looks attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 15.9x and a PEG of 0.08.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay under about 20x as earnings grow, so the discount reflects growth rather than a falling price.
CounterA PEG of 0.08 depends on extreme earnings growth that may not repeat, and valuation confidence is only 0.67.
Insiders made 3 purchases worth $79,982 in the last 90 days with no sales, and institutions are accumulating.
↓DeterioratingTotal buy value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider purchases should continue and sales should stay at zero while institutional holdings rise.
CounterThe purchases are tiny at 0.007% of market cap, so they carry little conviction signal.
The $7.79 price is 17.3% below the $9.14 analyst target, against 14.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 1.19.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should advance toward the $9.14 target without breaking the $7.24 stop level over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may not be reliable, and the 42% drawdown from the 52-week high shows how fast the price can fall.
Earnings growth scores a maximum 10.0 out of 10, supporting the cheap valuation.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should remain strong enough to keep the growth score above 7 through the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is just 0.33 and based on one component, so a single weak quarter could erase the score.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 5.7 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $79,982 (0.007% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 1.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.93
Upside
+21.8%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.93.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.9, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.8, Momentum at 3.7, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 1.8.
- P2Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from current 15.9x.
- P3Insider Buying Support
Trip ifInsider sales over 90 days exceed $500,000 with no purchases.
- P4Thin Reward To Risk
Trip ifPrice falls below the $7.24 stop level from current $7.79.
- P5Strong Earnings Growth
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 5.0 from current 10.0.