Value
4.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 44.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
AGX · Why this verdict
Why Argan (AGX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 39%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 258% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.31 (n=7)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $39,054,952 (0.401% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 82%
- ▸Above max pain $360
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 29.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.16
Upside
-16.3%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Momentum at 4.3, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.