Value
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
AGL · Why this verdict
Why agilon health (AGL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
agilon health has swung from large losses to two strong EPS beats with steady revenue near $1.5B per quarter, but quality is below the minimum floor, the forward P/E is 38.0x, and at $89.71 the shares sit only 12.3% below the $100.77 analyst target with 14.7% downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash burn is small at -2% of revenue, but quality is 1.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with margin components near zero and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and quality rises above 4/10 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins near zero mean any rise in medical costs can turn a small burn into a large one. | ||
After misses of -$8.95 and -$6.40 per share, agilon beat estimates in the last two reports ($2.15 versus $0.27 in August 2026 and $2.32 versus $0.93 in May 2026). Last 4 quarters | EPS stays positive and beats estimates in the November 4 report and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEight of the last twelve reports were misses, and the large beats followed large losses, so the recent swing may be one-time items rather than a durable turn. | ||
Revenue is steady, at $1.49B in the June 2026 quarter versus $1.39B a year earlier, with the next quarter estimated at $1.46B. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue stays above $1.4B over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has been flat to down from $1.60B in March 2024, so growth is modest and margins are thin. | ||
The shares score 10/10 on price-to-sales and PEG of 0.33, but the forward P/E of 38.0x shows valuation rests on future earnings recovery. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E falls below 30x as earnings estimates are met. | →Stable |
| CounterA 38.0x forward multiple on a company with a -$8.95 EPS quarter within the last year leaves little room for disappointment. | ||
The stock is in a breakout (golden cross, above the 200-day average, MACD bullish), but reward-to-risk is only 0.84 with 12.3% upside to the target versus 14.7% downside. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and moves toward the $100.77 analyst target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 4.00 show distribution and bearish options positioning behind the breakout. | ||
Cash burn is small at -2% of revenue, but quality is 1.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with margin components near zero and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and quality rises above 4/10 within 12 months.
CounterMargins near zero mean any rise in medical costs can turn a small burn into a large one.
After misses of -$8.95 and -$6.40 per share, agilon beat estimates in the last two reports ($2.15 versus $0.27 in August 2026 and $2.32 versus $0.93 in May 2026).
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS stays positive and beats estimates in the November 4 report and the following quarters.
CounterEight of the last twelve reports were misses, and the large beats followed large losses, so the recent swing may be one-time items rather than a durable turn.
Revenue is steady, at $1.49B in the June 2026 quarter versus $1.39B a year earlier, with the next quarter estimated at $1.46B.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $1.4B over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue has been flat to down from $1.60B in March 2024, so growth is modest and margins are thin.
The shares score 10/10 on price-to-sales and PEG of 0.33, but the forward P/E of 38.0x shows valuation rests on future earnings recovery.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E falls below 30x as earnings estimates are met.
CounterA 38.0x forward multiple on a company with a -$8.95 EPS quarter within the last year leaves little room for disappointment.
The stock is in a breakout (golden cross, above the 200-day average, MACD bullish), but reward-to-risk is only 0.84 with 12.3% upside to the target versus 14.7% downside.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and moves toward the $100.77 analyst target.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 4.00 show distribution and bearish options positioning behind the breakout.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 6.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 97%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.91
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.00>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.9<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.91.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Sentiment at 7.3, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Technical at 2.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.91 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Swing To Beats
Trip ifEPS falls below $0.00 in the November 4 report.
- P2Steady Revenue Near 1 5 Billion
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.35B from $1.49B in the June 2026 quarter.
- P3Modest Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFCF burn exceeds 5% of revenue from the current 2%.
- P4Valued On Sales Not Earnings
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 50x from the current 38.0x.
- P5Breakout With Limited Reward
Trip ifPrice falls below the $83.43 stop level, more than 7% under the current $89.71.