Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
AEVA · Why this verdict
Why Aeva Technologies (AEVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aeva is a cash-burning, early-revenue technology company with heavy insider selling and a 68% drawdown, but revenue is growing, losses are narrowing against estimates, and the $25.23 analyst target implies 148.1% upside from an oversold price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Aeva is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -646% of revenue, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and an operating margin of -48.5%. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows relative to revenue as production programs ramp. | →Stable |
| CounterA burn this large relative to revenue means dilution or new funding is likely if the top customer program slips. | ||
Revenue is growing, at $6.14M in the June 2026 quarter versus $5.51M a year earlier, but depends on a top European passenger OEM customer. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches the $6.4M next-quarter estimate and stays above $6M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in one automaker means the loss or delay of one program would remove much of the revenue base. | ||
Aeva has beaten loss estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with average surprise of +4.34% and quarterly EPS stable near -$0.41. Avg surprise pct | EPS loss stays at or below -$0.41 and beats estimates in the November 4 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe loss per share has barely improved in three quarters (-$0.40 to -$0.41), so beats come from lower estimates rather than progress. | ||
Insiders have sold $12.2M across 17 sales (1.724% of market cap) with no purchases, an extreme level of selling. Net value 90d | Insider selling slows to a minor level, below 0.5% of market cap, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating at the same time, and much insider selling in young technology companies is pre-scheduled compensation selling. | ||
The $25.23 analyst target implies 148.1% upside from $10.17, and RSI of 20 marks a deeply oversold stock with rising on-balance volume. Analyst target | An oversold bounce lifts price toward the analyst target as accumulation continues. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI of 20 below a flat 200-day average can mark capitulation rather than a bottom, and short interest is 19%. | ||
Aeva is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -646% of revenue, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and an operating margin of -48.5%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows relative to revenue as production programs ramp.
CounterA burn this large relative to revenue means dilution or new funding is likely if the top customer program slips.
Revenue is growing, at $6.14M in the June 2026 quarter versus $5.51M a year earlier, but depends on a top European passenger OEM customer.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the $6.4M next-quarter estimate and stays above $6M.
CounterConcentration in one automaker means the loss or delay of one program would remove much of the revenue base.
Aeva has beaten loss estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with average surprise of +4.34% and quarterly EPS stable near -$0.41.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS loss stays at or below -$0.41 and beats estimates in the November 4 report.
CounterThe loss per share has barely improved in three quarters (-$0.40 to -$0.41), so beats come from lower estimates rather than progress.
Insiders have sold $12.2M across 17 sales (1.724% of market cap) with no purchases, an extreme level of selling.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to a minor level, below 0.5% of market cap, over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating at the same time, and much insider selling in young technology companies is pre-scheduled compensation selling.
The $25.23 analyst target implies 148.1% upside from $10.17, and RSI of 20 marks a deeply oversold stock with rising on-balance volume.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- An oversold bounce lifts price toward the analyst target as accumulation continues.
CounterRSI of 20 below a flat 200-day average can mark capitulation rather than a bottom, and short interest is 19%.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -646% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 171%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $11,796,143 (1.583% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 20%
- ▸High IV: 108%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:9.1>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- INSIDER:1.58%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
9.07
Upside
+136.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -66% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 6.6 and asymmetric R:R of 9.07.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.6, Value at 5.4, and Growth at 5.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.3, and Quality at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Severe Cash Burn
Trip ifFCF burn narrows to less than 300% of revenue from the current 646%.
- P2Growing Revenue With Oem Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $5M from $6.14M in the June 2026 quarter.
- P3Narrowing Losses Beat Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Persistent Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling falls below 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day window.
- P5Oversold Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $15 from the current $25.23.