Value
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
ADV · Why this verdict
Why Advantage Solutions (ADV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 2.4 remains below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, with return on equity, gross margin, and net margin components all reading zero. Quality breakdown | At least some core profitability components should move off zero and the quality score should climb toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-score component reads a solid 6.7 and the current ratio component reads a strong 6.9, both suggesting some underlying financial discipline despite weak headline profitability. | ||
The company has missed estimates in all four of the last trailing quarters, most recently by -46.79%, with an average surprise across the window of -92.5%. Earnings | The company should return to at least an in-line result in the next reported quarter, due in 33 days, for the deep miss streak to be considered stabilizing. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider activity shows two buy transactions totaling $55,360 in the same window, a small bullish signal that sits in tension with the deteriorating earnings trend. | ||
The bear case explicitly notes the analyst target has already been reached with only -7.0% remaining upside, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.47 that failed the reward-to-risk gate. Bear case | A fresh resistance level would need to open meaningful upside room relative to the 7.0% stop distance for the reward-to-risk ratio to turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is independently classified as a breakout, with a golden cross and bullish MACD reading, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target. | ||
Shares screen extremely cheap on headline multiples, with a forward P/E near 4.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.03, even as the underlying earnings trend has deteriorated sharply. Valuation breakdown | The cheap valuation should be validated by a stabilizing earnings trend over the next 12 months rather than reflecting a value trap. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer ranking places quality at nearly the bottom of the peer group, at a components score of just 0.31, suggesting the cheap multiple may be compensating for weak fundamentals rather than signaling a genuine bargain. | ||
The position is explicitly flagged as aggressive suitability because beta of 2.09 exceeds the 1.3 threshold the engine uses, combined with a market capitalization below $5 billion. Suitability rationale | Beta should decline back toward or below the 1.3 threshold over the next 12 months for the aggressive-suitability flag to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterThe risk-component score for beta itself reads a moderate 3.0 on the risk scale, suggesting the raw beta reading is not treated as an extreme outlier within the broader risk assessment. | ||
The quality score of 2.4 remains below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, with return on equity, gross margin, and net margin components all reading zero.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- At least some core profitability components should move off zero and the quality score should climb toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse.
CounterThe Piotroski F-score component reads a solid 6.7 and the current ratio component reads a strong 6.9, both suggesting some underlying financial discipline despite weak headline profitability.
The company has missed estimates in all four of the last trailing quarters, most recently by -46.79%, with an average surprise across the window of -92.5%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line result in the next reported quarter, due in 33 days, for the deep miss streak to be considered stabilizing.
CounterInsider activity shows two buy transactions totaling $55,360 in the same window, a small bullish signal that sits in tension with the deteriorating earnings trend.
The bear case explicitly notes the analyst target has already been reached with only -7.0% remaining upside, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.47 that failed the reward-to-risk gate.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A fresh resistance level would need to open meaningful upside room relative to the 7.0% stop distance for the reward-to-risk ratio to turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe setup is independently classified as a breakout, with a golden cross and bullish MACD reading, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target.
Shares screen extremely cheap on headline multiples, with a forward P/E near 4.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.03, even as the underlying earnings trend has deteriorated sharply.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The cheap valuation should be validated by a stabilizing earnings trend over the next 12 months rather than reflecting a value trap.
CounterPeer ranking places quality at nearly the bottom of the peer group, at a components score of just 0.31, suggesting the cheap multiple may be compensating for weak fundamentals rather than signaling a genuine bargain.
The position is explicitly flagged as aggressive suitability because beta of 2.09 exceeds the 1.3 threshold the engine uses, combined with a market capitalization below $5 billion.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Beta should decline back toward or below the 1.3 threshold over the next 12 months for the aggressive-suitability flag to clear.
CounterThe risk-component score for beta itself reads a moderate 3.0 on the risk scale, suggesting the raw beta reading is not treated as an extreme outlier within the broader risk assessment.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Advantage Solutions screens extremely cheap on headline multiples, but quality sits below the exit threshold, the company has missed earnings four straight quarters, and the reward-to-risk setup has already turned negative near its resistance target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 9.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $55,360 (0.010% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.09>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Insider at 7.8, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Exit Signal
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.4.
- P2Four Straight Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise rises above 0% (a beat or in-line) in the next reported quarter.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -0.47.
- P4Attractive Valuation Despite Weak Fundamentals
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.03.
- P5Elevated Beta Aggressive Suitability
Trip ifBeta falls below 1.3 from the current 2.09.