Value
8.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
ADIG · Why this verdict
Why ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ADI Global Distribution is cheap on earnings (forward P/E 8.8x) with the price 41.5% below the $22.97 analyst target, but razor-thin margins keep quality below the minimum floor, and a 48% drawdown, heavy put positioning and a large insider sale add risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The shares are attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG of 0.06, with earnings growth scoring 10/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x as expected earnings growth is delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation confidence is only 0.83 and earnings history is not available in the data, so the forward multiple rests on estimates that cannot be checked against past results. | ||
Business quality is 3.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with gross, operating and net margin components near zero (0.4, 0.9, 0.4) and no competitive moat. Bear case | Margins improve enough to lift the quality score above 5/10 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA distributor with margins this thin has little room to absorb cost increases, and quality ranks only 2.5 against peers. | ||
At $16.23 the stock is 41.5% below the $22.97 analyst target, with reward-to-risk of 3.55. Analyst target | Price moves toward the $22.97 target as earnings growth is delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries a low-confidence signal and could be revised sharply. | ||
Insider selling of $2.43M (0.198% of market cap) was a single 150,000-share sale, a one-time disposal rather than a pattern of repeated selling. Net value 90d | No further insider sales exceed $2M over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sale value is estimated from a last-price proxy, and it still labels insider activity bearish at moderate severity. | ||
Rising on-balance volume shows accumulation despite a 48% drawdown from the 52-week high and an RSI-driven momentum score of 4.9/10. Momentum breakdown | Momentum improves above 5.5/10 as the accumulation shows in price. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 10.00 and implied volatility of 96% show the options market is heavily positioned for downside. | ||
The shares are attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG of 0.06, with earnings growth scoring 10/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x as expected earnings growth is delivered.
CounterValuation confidence is only 0.83 and earnings history is not available in the data, so the forward multiple rests on estimates that cannot be checked against past results.
Business quality is 3.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with gross, operating and net margin components near zero (0.4, 0.9, 0.4) and no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Margins improve enough to lift the quality score above 5/10 over 12 months.
CounterA distributor with margins this thin has little room to absorb cost increases, and quality ranks only 2.5 against peers.
At $16.23 the stock is 41.5% below the $22.97 analyst target, with reward-to-risk of 3.55.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $22.97 target as earnings growth is delivered.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries a low-confidence signal and could be revised sharply.
Insider selling of $2.43M (0.198% of market cap) was a single 150,000-share sale, a one-time disposal rather than a pattern of repeated selling.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- No further insider sales exceed $2M over the next 12 months.
CounterThe sale value is estimated from a last-price proxy, and it still labels insider activity bearish at moderate severity.
Rising on-balance volume shows accumulation despite a 48% drawdown from the 52-week high and an RSI-driven momentum score of 4.9/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum improves above 5.5/10 as the accumulation shows in price.
CounterA put/call ratio of 10.00 and implied volatility of 96% show the options market is heavily positioned for downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 9.4 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,596,500 (0.198% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 1.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸High IV: 91%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.45
Upside
+32.7%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 2.45.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Insider at 6.7, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Technical at 3.5, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Earnings Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 13x from the current 8.8x.
- P2Thin Margins Weak Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0/10 for 2 consecutive quarterly updates.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $18 from the current $22.97.
- P4Single Large Insider Sale
Trip ifAdditional insider sales exceed $5M over a 90-day window.
- P5Accumulation Despite Drawdown
Trip ifPrice falls below the $15.09 stop level, more than 7% under the current $16.23.