Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
ACEL · Why this verdict
Why Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Accel Entertainment pairs a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, steady revenue growth and strong cash conversion with a cheap valuation (forward P/E 9.7x), offset by leverage at 2.0x debt-to-equity, modest insider selling and no competitive moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Accel has beaten EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +29.97%, including +41.52% in August 2026. Avg surprise pct | Beats continue in the November 3 report and the following quarters, with average surprise staying positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA beat streak against low bars can be an artifact of conservative estimates and may not drive the price when the stock still trades below its 200-day average. | ||
Revenue has risen for four straight quarters to $368.1M in June 2026 from $335.9M a year earlier, about 9.6% growth. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches the roughly $359M-plus estimate for the next quarter and stays above $350M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue growth of single digits in a cyclical consumer business leaves little cushion if discretionary spending weakens. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 123% FCF to net income, with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business has no competitive moat, and gross and net margin components score only 2.3 and 2.0 out of 10, so cash generation is thin. | ||
Leverage is a drag: debt-to-equity of 2.0 triggers a -1.0 penalty, and 4 insider sales (0.07% of market cap) add to value-trap signals. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 1.5 and insider selling stops over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider selling is small and debt can be serviced by the 123% cash conversion, so the penalty may be overstated. | ||
Forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG of 0.11 make the stock cheap, and at $11.00 it sits 23.2% below the $13.55 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price closes the gap toward the $13.55 target as earnings keep beating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and a low multiple in consumer cyclicals often persists when the sector is out of favor. | ||
Accel has beaten EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +29.97%, including +41.52% in August 2026.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Beats continue in the November 3 report and the following quarters, with average surprise staying positive.
CounterA beat streak against low bars can be an artifact of conservative estimates and may not drive the price when the stock still trades below its 200-day average.
Revenue has risen for four straight quarters to $368.1M in June 2026 from $335.9M a year earlier, about 9.6% growth.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the roughly $359M-plus estimate for the next quarter and stays above $350M.
CounterRevenue growth of single digits in a cyclical consumer business leaves little cushion if discretionary spending weakens.
Cash conversion is excellent at 123% FCF to net income, with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterThe business has no competitive moat, and gross and net margin components score only 2.3 and 2.0 out of 10, so cash generation is thin.
Leverage is a drag: debt-to-equity of 2.0 triggers a -1.0 penalty, and 4 insider sales (0.07% of market cap) add to value-trap signals.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 1.5 and insider selling stops over the next 12 months.
CounterThe insider selling is small and debt can be serviced by the 123% cash conversion, so the penalty may be overstated.
Forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG of 0.11 make the stock cheap, and at $11.00 it sits 23.2% below the $13.55 analyst target.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes the gap toward the $13.55 target as earnings keep beating.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and a low multiple in consumer cyclicals often persists when the sector is out of favor.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 123% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $654,666 (0.073% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
4.28
Upside
+22.2%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Growth at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, Technical at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $335M from $368.1M in the June 2026 quarter.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income falls below 80% from the current 123%.
- P4Leverage And Insider Selling
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.5 from the current 2.0.
- P5Cheap Valuation Below Target
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.7x.