Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
ACEL · Why this verdict
Why Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten estimates in all four of the last trailing quarters, most recently by 11.55%, with an average surprise of 23.4%, reflected in a perfect four-quarter beat streak. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue with another beat in the next reported quarter, due within 31 days, for the pattern to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe revenue growth component reads a modest 4.6, and the operating and net margin components are thin at 3.3 and 1.9 respectively, suggesting the beats are not necessarily driven by broad-based fundamental strength. | ||
Shares screen attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 13.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.21, alongside a strong earnings-growth component reading 10.0. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay meaningfully below 1.0 and the growth score should hold near current strong levels over the next 12 months if the valuation gap is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterGross and net margins remain thin, at components of 2.3 and 1.9 respectively, tempering how cheap the business really is on a quality-adjusted basis. | ||
The setup has failed both the momentum gate, at 3.6 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86 versus the 1.5 bar required at spot, despite an uptrend-pullback read on RSI. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should climb above the 1.5 bar over the next 12 months for the setup to clear both gates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe pullback is explicitly framed as occurring within an uptrend and flagged as a buy opportunity, with price still holding above the 200-day moving average. | ||
Insiders were net sellers over the past 90 days, with seven sell transactions against one buy for a net outflow of $984,711, while the roughly $1.0 billion market cap keeps the setup below institutional reach. Insider | Insider transactions should shift back toward net buying and the bearish insider signal should fade over the next 12 months if sentiment among insiders is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider selling is characterized as only minor relative to market capitalization, at under 0.1% of market cap, a scale unlikely to reflect a fundamental change in insider views. | ||
The analyst-target upside sits at a thin 5.6% while leverage carries an explicit penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1, producing a bear case even before the failed technical gates are considered. Bear case | The upside margin should widen well beyond the current 5.6% and the debt-to-equity ratio should decline over the next 12 months for the leverage-related concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current ratio component reads a strong 9.1, indicating ample short-term liquidity to service the higher leverage load. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in all four of the last trailing quarters, most recently by 11.55%, with an average surprise of 23.4%, reflected in a perfect four-quarter beat streak.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with another beat in the next reported quarter, due within 31 days, for the pattern to hold.
CounterThe revenue growth component reads a modest 4.6, and the operating and net margin components are thin at 3.3 and 1.9 respectively, suggesting the beats are not necessarily driven by broad-based fundamental strength.
Shares screen attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 13.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.21, alongside a strong earnings-growth component reading 10.0.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay meaningfully below 1.0 and the growth score should hold near current strong levels over the next 12 months if the valuation gap is genuine.
CounterGross and net margins remain thin, at components of 2.3 and 1.9 respectively, tempering how cheap the business really is on a quality-adjusted basis.
The setup has failed both the momentum gate, at 3.6 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86 versus the 1.5 bar required at spot, despite an uptrend-pullback read on RSI.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should climb above the 1.5 bar over the next 12 months for the setup to clear both gates.
CounterThe pullback is explicitly framed as occurring within an uptrend and flagged as a buy opportunity, with price still holding above the 200-day moving average.
Insiders were net sellers over the past 90 days, with seven sell transactions against one buy for a net outflow of $984,711, while the roughly $1.0 billion market cap keeps the setup below institutional reach.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should shift back toward net buying and the bearish insider signal should fade over the next 12 months if sentiment among insiders is improving.
CounterThe insider selling is characterized as only minor relative to market capitalization, at under 0.1% of market cap, a scale unlikely to reflect a fundamental change in insider views.
The analyst-target upside sits at a thin 5.6% while leverage carries an explicit penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1, producing a bear case even before the failed technical gates are considered.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The upside margin should widen well beyond the current 5.6% and the debt-to-equity ratio should decline over the next 12 months for the leverage-related concern to ease.
CounterThe current ratio component reads a strong 9.1, indicating ample short-term liquidity to service the higher leverage load.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Accel Entertainment carries a perfect earnings beat streak and a cheap-looking valuation, but a failed momentum gate, thin upside margin, and insider selling against an institutional-reach cap argue for trimming rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 68% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 1.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.8 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $984,711 (0.098% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.63
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.63 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.4, Value at 8.1, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.8, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.21.
- P3Momentum And Asymmetry Gates Failed
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.6.
- P4Insider Selling Institutional Cap
Trip ifNet insider value turns positive, exceeding $500,000 in net buying, over the next 2 quarters.
- P5Thin Upside With Leverage Penalty
Trip ifUpside to target exceeds 15% from the current 5.6%.