Value
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
ABSI · Why this verdict
Why Absci (ABSI) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining, down 46% on the engine's growth read and 90.6% YoY on the value-trap read, with the June 2026 quarter at only $318K. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue recovers above the $613K next-quarter estimate as partnered programs generate milestones. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy milestone income from partnered drug programs, so declines may reverse sharply on a single partner payment. | ||
Absci is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -3241% of revenue, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows substantially, with FCF loss shrinking relative to revenue over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high burn relative to near-zero revenue means a dilutive raise is likely if programs do not produce cash soon. | ||
Losses persist near -$0.20 per share each quarter, with average EPS surprise of -7.95% and a -32.54% miss in March 2026. Avg surprise pct | EPS losses narrow and results land at or above estimates for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly losses have been stable and predictable at -$0.19 to -$0.24, so the misses are small in dollar terms. | ||
At $9.18 the stock is 41.2% below the $12.96 analyst target, which is the core support for the long case. Analyst target | Price narrows the gap to the $12.96 target as partnered programs advance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the target is a binary-biotech estimate, so it can be cut without warning. | ||
Momentum is constructive with price above the 200-day average, rising on-balance volume and an RSI of 36 pullback, though short interest is high at 27%. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and short interest falls below 20%. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterShort interest of 27% with implied volatility of 122% signals sophisticated bears and a violent downside if programs disappoint. | ||
Revenue is declining, down 46% on the engine's growth read and 90.6% YoY on the value-trap read, with the June 2026 quarter at only $318K.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue recovers above the $613K next-quarter estimate as partnered programs generate milestones.
CounterRevenue is lumpy milestone income from partnered drug programs, so declines may reverse sharply on a single partner payment.
Absci is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -3241% of revenue, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows substantially, with FCF loss shrinking relative to revenue over the next 12 months.
CounterA very high burn relative to near-zero revenue means a dilutive raise is likely if programs do not produce cash soon.
Losses persist near -$0.20 per share each quarter, with average EPS surprise of -7.95% and a -32.54% miss in March 2026.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS losses narrow and results land at or above estimates for the next four quarters.
CounterQuarterly losses have been stable and predictable at -$0.19 to -$0.24, so the misses are small in dollar terms.
At $9.18 the stock is 41.2% below the $12.96 analyst target, which is the core support for the long case.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price narrows the gap to the $12.96 target as partnered programs advance.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the target is a binary-biotech estimate, so it can be cut without warning.
Momentum is constructive with price above the 200-day average, rising on-balance volume and an RSI of 36 pullback, though short interest is high at 27%.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and short interest falls below 20%.
CounterShort interest of 27% with implied volatility of 122% signals sophisticated bears and a violent downside if programs disappoint.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3241% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -46%
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.9 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.4 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 26%
- ▸High IV: 108%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.61
Upside
+9.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.6<1.5@spot outcome against Momentum at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of 0.61.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 1.5, and Technical at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Collapsing Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $1.0M, well above the $318K June 2026 quarter.
- P2Severe Cash Burn
Trip ifFCF burn narrows to less than 1000% of revenue from the current 3241%.
- P3Persistent Earnings Shortfalls
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds +5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $10 from the current $12.96.
- P5Uptrend Pullback Short InterestTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with RSI dropping below 30 from 36.