Value
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.42
ABNB · Why this verdict
Why Airbnb (ABNB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Airbnb commands a wide economic moat with strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion (127% of net income), but three consecutive earnings misses and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target leave the risk/reward unfavorable at current prices — the setup warrants patience rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters, with an average miss of approximately -11.6%, indicating that either guidance has become too optimistic or near-term business performance is deteriorating below expectations. Earnings | This pillar is invalidated if EPS surprise turns positive and is sustained for two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarter preceding the three-miss streak produced a 10.1% positive surprise, suggesting the capacity to beat estimates exists; the miss pattern may reflect temporary estimation noise rather than structural deterioration. | ||
Airbnb delivers strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 127% of net income, underpinned by a wide economic moat — together these metrics suggest durable earnings power through cycles. Quality breakdown | Gross margins hold above 18% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters; if execution pressure persists, it can erode the quality metrics this thesis rests on. | ||
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and shows bullish MACD alongside rising on-balance volume — suggesting the intermediate-term price trend is constructive. Chart pattern detection | Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume rising and RSI staying above 50 over the next two months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a forward P/E of 22.9x and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target, a single earnings disappointment could quickly reverse the current price setup. | ||
At the current price of $138.96, only about 3.6% of upside remains to the analyst price target of $143.96, and the risk/reward of 0.57-to-1 is unfavorable — the potential downside materially outweighs the available upside at current levels. Price targets | This pillar is invalidated if the stock pulls back to create wider upside to target, or if analyst targets are revised materially higher. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA wide economic moat and strong cash generation can sustain a premium multiple indefinitely; thin upside to the current target may simply reflect fair value rather than overvaluation, and the quality franchise argues against a de-rating. | ||
The company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters, with an average miss of approximately -11.6%, indicating that either guidance has become too optimistic or near-term business performance is deteriorating below expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if EPS surprise turns positive and is sustained for two consecutive quarters.
CounterThe quarter preceding the three-miss streak produced a 10.1% positive surprise, suggesting the capacity to beat estimates exists; the miss pattern may reflect temporary estimation noise rather than structural deterioration.
Airbnb delivers strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 127% of net income, underpinned by a wide economic moat — together these metrics suggest durable earnings power through cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margins hold above 18% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters; if execution pressure persists, it can erode the quality metrics this thesis rests on.
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and shows bullish MACD alongside rising on-balance volume — suggesting the intermediate-term price trend is constructive.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume rising and RSI staying above 50 over the next two months.
CounterWith a forward P/E of 22.9x and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target, a single earnings disappointment could quickly reverse the current price setup.
At the current price of $138.96, only about 3.6% of upside remains to the analyst price target of $143.96, and the risk/reward of 0.57-to-1 is unfavorable — the potential downside materially outweighs the available upside at current levels.
Tripped↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if the stock pulls back to create wider upside to target, or if analyst targets are revised materially higher.
CounterA wide economic moat and strong cash generation can sustain a premium multiple indefinitely; thin upside to the current target may simply reflect fair value rather than overvaluation, and the quality franchise argues against a de-rating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $228,424,390 (0.230% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $90
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.42, quality 8.0/10, growth 7.6/10). | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.37
Upside
+1.9%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.0 and growth 7.6 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.37 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.0, Growth at 7.6, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Momentum at 3.3, and Insider at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Franchise Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Momentum Breakout Above 200ma
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 while price trades below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Repeated Earnings Estimate Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Unfavorable AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $160.00, creating more than 15% upside from current levels.