Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.0 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.58
ABBV · Why this verdict
Why AbbVie (ABBV) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AbbVie generates exceptional cash flow at 573% of net income with positive price momentum, but the stock sits just below its near-term price target with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.44-to-1 and meaningful concentration risk across both major customers and single-source suppliers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business converts reported earnings into cash at an exceptional rate, with free cash flow running at 573% of net income, supported by strong gross and operating margins and a Rule of 40 score of 46. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion sustains above 400% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming durable cash generation quality. | →Stable |
| CounterExceptional FCF conversion that substantially exceeds 100% of net income may reflect non-recurring items or timing; if the customer concentration risk materializes and distributor relationships deteriorate, revenue and cash generation could weaken faster than reported earnings suggest. | ||
Volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) combined with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average points to a positive price momentum trend that has not yet reversed. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock sustains above its 200-day moving average for the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock sits just below the analyst take-profit target with only about 2.3% of upside remaining; at these levels, buying interest may fade and even mild negative news could shift volume from accumulation to distribution quickly. | ||
The business carries meaningful customer concentration risk with reliance on McKesson, Cardinal Health, and Cencora as major distributors, alongside single-source supplier dependencies — both represent structural vulnerabilities if any one relationship deteriorates. Bear case | Revenue remains stable with no material attrition from concentrated distributors or supply disruptions over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe concentration risk is disclosed at the 10-K level; if the distributor and supplier relationships remain operationally stable over the near term, the business may continue to generate consistent results without material disruption to revenue. | ||
With only about 2.3% remaining to the take-profit target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.44-to-1, the current setup does not offer a compelling near-term return opportunity relative to the potential downside. Price targets | The setup improves if the price pulls back toward $195, opening more than 17% of upside to the $228 take-profit target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe take-profit target reflects current analyst consensus and is not a ceiling; if the company's earnings trajectory improves materially in coming quarters, that target may be revised higher, restoring a more favorable risk/reward. | ||
The business converts reported earnings into cash at an exceptional rate, with free cash flow running at 573% of net income, supported by strong gross and operating margins and a Rule of 40 score of 46.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion sustains above 400% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming durable cash generation quality.
CounterExceptional FCF conversion that substantially exceeds 100% of net income may reflect non-recurring items or timing; if the customer concentration risk materializes and distributor relationships deteriorate, revenue and cash generation could weaken faster than reported earnings suggest.
Volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) combined with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average points to a positive price momentum trend that has not yet reversed.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock sustains above its 200-day moving average for the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock sits just below the analyst take-profit target with only about 2.3% of upside remaining; at these levels, buying interest may fade and even mild negative news could shift volume from accumulation to distribution quickly.
The business carries meaningful customer concentration risk with reliance on McKesson, Cardinal Health, and Cencora as major distributors, alongside single-source supplier dependencies — both represent structural vulnerabilities if any one relationship deteriorates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue remains stable with no material attrition from concentrated distributors or supply disruptions over the next 12 months.
CounterThe concentration risk is disclosed at the 10-K level; if the distributor and supplier relationships remain operationally stable over the near term, the business may continue to generate consistent results without material disruption to revenue.
With only about 2.3% remaining to the take-profit target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.44-to-1, the current setup does not offer a compelling near-term return opportunity relative to the potential downside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup improves if the price pulls back toward $195, opening more than 17% of upside to the $228 take-profit target.
CounterThe take-profit target reflects current analyst consensus and is not a ceiling; if the company's earnings trajectory improves materially in coming quarters, that target may be revised higher, restoring a more favorable risk/reward.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 267% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $8,177,500 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 9.7 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.05
Upside
-10.9%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Quality at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Insider at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.4, and Value at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.05 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Free Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio falls below 300% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Positive Price Momentum Continuation
Trip ifPrice falls below $200 for 5 consecutive trading sessions.
- P3Customer Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 2% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Limited Upside At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $195, creating at least 17% upside to the $228 take-profit target.