Simmons First National Corporation shows strong earnings growth of 24% year-over-year and a breakout technical pattern, but its quality score has fallen below minimum acceptable thresholds with a Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 and zero competitive moat, making it an exit candidate despite attractive growth metrics.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold↓Deteriorating
- Strong Earnings Growth Low Quality Base↓Deteriorating
- Breakout Momentum Already At Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, with $24.54 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025. The company generates revenue... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Simmons First National Corporat
Latest news
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Neutral on Simmons First Ntl, Raises Price Target to $25 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Simmons First National Price Target Cut to $25.00/Share From $26.00 — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on Simmons First Ntl, Raises Price Target to $27 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Outperform on Simmons First Ntl, Lowers Price Target to $25 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Simmons First Ntl Q3 Adj. EPS $0.54 Beats $0.53 Estimate, Sales $251.167M Miss $253.468M Estimate — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicArkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'Our concentration of banking activities in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas...makes us more vulnerable to adverse conditions in the particular local markets'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans10-K Item 1A: 'Significant portions of our loan portfolio include commercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWOn May 13, 2026, Simmons First shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Stock and Incentive Plan at the Annual Meeting, increasing authorized shares by 3,550,000 to 7,350,000 total and adding a $750,000 annual cap on non-employee director compensation. Routine compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $22.68 reached (−1.7%), stop $22.13 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $22.68 reached (−1.7% from $23.07); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $22.68 reached (−1.7%), stop $22.13 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $22.13.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Simmons First National Corporat trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover SFNC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $26.
What does Simmons First National Corporat do?Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in...
Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, with $24.54 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025. The company generates revenue primarily from net interest income on $17.49 billion in loans, funded by $20.18 billion in deposits from retail, commercial, and wealth customers across its six-state footprint.