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RNSTRenasant CorporationHold6.8·$40.19
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Renasant Corporation is a regional bank with 60% year-over-year earnings growth, a PEG ratio of 0.24, and strong technical momentum, but extremely high real-estate-and-commercial loan concentration at 84.6% of the loan book creates meaningful downside exposure to a credit cycle turn.

Thesis pillars

  • Loan Concentration Commercial Real Estate↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Earnings Growth 60 Pct→Stable
  • Price At Target Negative Entry↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Renasant Corporation (RNST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateral (84.6%).

Renasant Corporation operates Renasant Bank through 277 offices across the Southeast following its April 2025 acquisition of The First Bancshares, with a Community Banks segment generating approximately 81.1% of total gross revenues. The Wealth Management segment produced $35.5... Read more

$40.19+3.3% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#11 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.30%(5y avg 2.58%)Payout27.22%sustainable
Stop $38.55Analyst target $41.51(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst consensus$47.71+18.7%7 analysts
$41.51Analyst target
$40.19price
$47.71mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateral (84.6%). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jan 26, 202789d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%)
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateral (84.6%)
Thin upside margin: 3.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn29.6%
ROE8.2%
Rev Growth45.3%
Beta1.03
Dividend2.30%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioC&I, construction and commercial real estate loans75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75.10% of our loan portfolio consisted of C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate non-owner occupied loans33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our commercial real estate - non-owner occupied loans represented approximately 32.79% of our total loans at December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate collateral85%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 84.64% of our loan portfolio had real estate as a primary or secondary component of the collateral securing the loan'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    On March 11, 2026, Renasant Bank amended M. Ray (Hoppy) Cole Jr.'s employment agreement to align his Performance Based Rewards Plan bonus eligibility to a calendar year basis consistent with other senior executives. No officer departure cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.08Resistance $42.15

Price Targets

$39
$42
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-26 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RNST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateral (84.6%). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $41.51 (+3.3%), stop $38.55 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RNST stock price target?

Analyst target: $41.51 (+3.3% upside). Analyst target $41.51 (+3.3%), stop $38.55 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $38.55.

What are the risks of investing in RNST?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: C&I, construction and commercial real estate loans (75.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateral (84.6%); Thin upside margin: 3.3%.

Is RNST overvalued or undervalued?

Renasant Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about RNST?

13 analysts cover RNST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Renasant Corporation do?Renasant Corporation operates Renasant Bank through 277 offices across the Southeast following its April 2025...

Renasant Corporation operates Renasant Bank through 277 offices across the Southeast following its April 2025 acquisition of The First Bancshares, with a Community Banks segment generating approximately 81.1% of total gross revenues. The Wealth Management segment produced $35.5 million in revenue (2.4% of total) in 2025.

Related stocks: GCBC (Greene County Bancorp, Inc.) · HBNC (Horizon Bancorp, Inc.) · MBIN (Merchants Bancorp) · CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation)
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