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PHIPLDT Inc. SponsoredSell4.8·$17.38
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

PLDT offers deep value with a forward P/E of 6.7x and 25.6% upside to the analyst target, supported by strong ROE and peer-leading margins, but is constrained by confirmed downtrend momentum, negative free cash flow relative to net income, and a leverage penalty from debt-to-equity of 2.8.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Low Forward Pe↑Improving
  • Negative Fcf Quality Concern→Stable
  • Downtrend Momentum Headwind↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

PLDT Inc. Sponsored (PHI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

PLDT Inc. provides telecommunications and digital services in the Philippines. The company operates through three segments: Wireless, Fixed Line, and Others. It offers cellular mobile, internet broadband distribution, operations support, software development, and satellite... Read more

$17.38+29.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#33 of 41 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield38.87%
IncomeYield8.61%(5y avg 7.18%)Payout74.64%
Stop $16.61Analyst target $22.46(−15% haircut)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst consensus$26.42+52.0%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 50%
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.2
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA4.0
Profit Mgn13.1%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.33
Dividend8.61%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.0
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.12Resistance $20.27

Price Targets

$17
$22
A.Upside+29.2%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.61. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PHI stock price target?

Analyst target: $22.46 (+29.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.61. Stop-loss: $16.61.

What are the risks of investing in PHI?

Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is PHI overvalued or undervalued?

PLDT Inc. Sponsored trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHI?

15 analysts cover PHI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $26.

What does PLDT Inc. Sponsored do?PLDT Inc. provides telecommunications and digital services in the Philippines. The company operates through three...

PLDT Inc. provides telecommunications and digital services in the Philippines. The company operates through three segments: Wireless, Fixed Line, and Others. It offers cellular mobile, internet broadband distribution, operations support, software development, and satellite information and messaging services; and sells Wi-Fi access equipment. It also provides fixed line telecommunications services; secure data center, multi-cloud, cybersecurity, data and artificial intelligence solutions; business infrastructure and solutions; intelligent data processing and implementation, and data analytics insight generation services; and information and communications infrastructure for Internet-based services, e-commerce, customer relationship management, and information technology (IT) related services. In addition, it offers managed IT outsourcing, Internet-based purchasing, IT consulting and professional, and bill printing and other related value-added services; provides full-service customer rewards and loyalty programs; and distributes Filipino channels and content services. Further, the company engages in the sale of mobile handsets, broadband data routers, tablets, and accessories; and cross-border digital platforms, and other allied services. Additionally, it provides gaming support services; internet services; mobile internet, broadband, and data services; content provider, and mobile applications; IT solutions; data and multimedia services; domestic leased lines; alternative messaging solutions, such as over-the-top services, social media, SMS, and chat applications; mobile prepaid and postpaid services; and fixed wireless broadband services. It serves residential, individuals, micro, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, and the public sector. The company was formerly known as Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company and changed its name to PLDT Inc. in July 2016. PLDT Inc. was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Makati City, the Philippines.

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