Provident Financial Services has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average 9.7% upside surprise, trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x in a golden cross technical pattern, but 57% commercial real estate loan concentration and analyst targets already reached limit the near-term upside case.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Real Estate Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Regional Bank Valuation↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Provident Financial Services, I (PFS) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: NJDOBI and FDIC.
Provident Bank, the New Jersey-chartered savings bank subsidiary of Provident Financial Services, operates 141 branches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York with $24.98 billion in total assets after completing its merger with Lakeland Bancorp in May 2024. The bank earns... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: NJDOBI and FDIC. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Provident Financial Services, I
Latest news
- NEWS Provident Financial (PFS) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Provident Financial (PFS) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Provident Financial Services’s (NYSE:PFS) Q2 CY2026: Beats On Revenue - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Provident Financial Services’s (NYSE:PFS) Q2 CY2026: Beats On Revenue - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Provident Financial Services' Earnings Beat: A Lasting Shift in Core Banking Economics or a One-Off? (PFS) - simplywall. — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans57%10-K Item 1A: 'our portfolio of commercial real estate loans, including multi-family loans, totaled $11.07 billion, or 57.3% of total loans'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial loans27%10-K Item 1A: 'our commercial and industrial loans totaled $5.20 billion, or 26.9% of portfolio loans'
- HIGHregulatoryNJDOBI and FDIC10-K Item 1A: 'primarily by the NJDOBI, our chartering authority, and by the FDIC, as insurer of our deposits'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWExecutive Chairman Christopher Martin and Provident Financial Services entered into an Amended and Restated Executive Chairman Agreement (term extended to May 21, 2028) and an Amended and Restated Change in Control Agreement on the same date. Routine compensatory arrangement amendment; no departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: NJDOBI and FDIC. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $24.14 (+4.4%), stop $22.34 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $24.14 (+4.4% upside). Analyst target $24.14 (+4.4%), stop $22.34 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $22.34.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: NJDOBI and FDIC; Thin upside margin: 4.4%.
Provident Financial Services, I trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts cover PFS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Provident Financial Services, I do?Provident Bank, the New Jersey-chartered savings bank subsidiary of Provident Financial Services, operates 141 branches...
Provident Bank, the New Jersey-chartered savings bank subsidiary of Provident Financial Services, operates 141 branches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York with $24.98 billion in total assets after completing its merger with Lakeland Bancorp in May 2024. The bank earns primarily through net interest income on commercial real estate (38.3% of loans) and commercial loans (26.9% of loans), plus $109.8 million in non-interest income from wealth management, fees, and insurance.