Provident Financial Services, I (PFS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the PFS stock price target?

Take-profit $22.70 (+0.8% upside). Target $22.70 (+0.8%), stop $21.41 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1.

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

$22.52+0.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#62 of 142 Banks - Regional

Stop $21.41Target $22.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1

Analyst target$24.60+9.2%5 analysts

$22.70our TP

$22.52price

$24.60mean

$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 36%

Risks

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (57.3%)

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7

P/E (Fwd)9.0

Mkt Cap$3.0B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn34.6%

ROE11.1%

Rev Growth9.2%

Beta—

Dividend4.23%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV88%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHTenantcommercial real estate loans57%
10-K Item 1A: 'our portfolio of commercial real estate loans, including multi-family loans, totaled $11.07 billion, or 57.3% of total loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
Valerie O. Murray (President of Beacon Trust Company and EVP/Chief Wealth Management Officer) announced departure effective May 22, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Garden leave March 27 to May 22. Separation payment of $1.2M lump sum. No disagreement with company. No successor named.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.115%1.21

Quality5.315%0.79

Growth5.815%0.87

Momentum5.610%0.56

Sentiment5.610%0.56

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.810%0.58

Technical Setup5.45%0.27

Risk Profile4.85%0.24

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.96

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

53 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.08Resistance $23.16

Price Targets

$21

$23

A.Upside+0.8%

A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.9% upside)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PFS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.70 (+0.8%), stop $21.41 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.70 (+0.8% upside). Target $22.70 (+0.8%), stop $21.41 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $21.41.

What are the risks of investing in PFS?

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (57.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is PFS overvalued or undervalued?

Provident Financial Services, I trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PFS?

9 analysts cover PFS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Provident Financial Services, I do?Provident Financial Services is the holding company for Provident Bank, a New Jersey-chartered savings bank operating...

Provident Financial Services is the holding company for Provident Bank, a New Jersey-chartered savings bank operating across New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York with $24.98B in total assets following its 2024 merger with Lakeland Bancorp. Revenue is primarily net interest income from a commercial real estate-focused loan portfolio (57.3% of loans in CRE and multi-family). The bank emphasizes community banking with personal service across its multi-state footprint.