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PBAPembina Pipeline Corp.Sell5.5·$50.06
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pembina Pipeline trades near a 52-week high with strong operating margins of 22%, but it has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 26.6%, posted two consecutive earnings misses, and carries falling on-balance volume — making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Yield Trap Risk→Stable
  • Strong Operating Margin Profile→Stable
  • Target Exhaustion Overvaluation↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.06 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away).

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a... Read more

$50.06-19.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#38 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.99%
IncomeYield4.15%(5y avg 5.31%)Payout100.88%at-risk
Stop $48.08Analyst target $40.45(reached)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst consensus$47.59-4.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.06 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.9% away)
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)22.3
Mkt Cap$29.1B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta0.75
Dividend4.15%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.50bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$60+19.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.2
Dividend Safety
3.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 7 daysDividend: 4.2%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.8
Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
3.7
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.12Resistance $51.06

Price Targets

A.Upside-19.2%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.2% upside)
! News modifier -2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.06 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $48.08. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBA stock price target?

Analyst target $40.45 reached (−19.2% from $50.06); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $48.08. Stop-loss: $48.08.

What are the risks of investing in PBA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away); Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is PBA overvalued or undervalued?

Pembina Pipeline Corp. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBA?

22 analysts cover PBA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Pembina Pipeline Corp. do?Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments:...

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a transportation capacity of 3.0 million of barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the ground storage capacity of 10 million of barrels serving markets and basins across North America. The Facilities segment offers infrastructure that provides customers with crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, and condensate; and includes 430 thousands of barrels of NGL fractionation capacity, 21 million of barrels of cavern storage capacity, and various oil batteries, associated pipeline, and rail terminalling facilities and a liquefied propane export facility. The Marketing & New Ventures segment buys and sells hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas originating in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin and other basins. Pembina Pipeline Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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