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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
  • Best In Class Net Margin↓Deteriorating
  • Breakout Technical Momentum↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis

SellValueShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual... Read more

$50.51-6.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#213 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield3.88%(5y avg 3.31%)Payout30.03%sustainable
Stop $48.17Analyst target $47.46(reached)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst consensus$54.56+8.0%9 analysts
$50.51price
$54.56mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jan 19, 202782d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn43.8%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta0.91
Dividend3.88%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV37%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -2%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
9.2
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
80 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.83Resistance $51.21

Price Targets

A.Upside-6.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-19 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $50.51 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $48.17. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OZK stock price target?

Analyst target $47.46 reached (−6.0% from $50.51); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $48.17. Stop-loss: $48.17.

What are the risks of investing in OZK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is OZK overvalued or undervalued?

Bank OZK trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OZK?

14 analysts cover OZK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Bank OZK do?Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services....

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other accounts, as well as time and reciprocal deposits. It offers trust and wealth services, such as personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, and retirement accounts; corporate trust services that include trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other related services; and treasury management services, which include automated clearing house, wire transfer, current and prior day transaction reporting, wholesale lockbox, remote deposit capture, automated credit line transfer, reconciliation, positive pay, commercial card, and other services, as well as zero balance and investment sweep accounts. In addition, the company provides real estate, consumer, small business, indirect recreational vehicle and marine, equipment, agricultural, commercial and industrial, government guaranteed, lines of credit, homebuilder, and housing loans; lender and structured, business aviation, and subscription financing services; and mortgage and other lending products. The company was formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks and changed its name to Bank OZK in July 2018. Bank OZK was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

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