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Universal Display Corporation (OLED) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Electronic Components

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of OLED manufacturer customers.

Universal Display Corporation researches, develops, and commercializes OLED technologies and materials for display and solid-state lighting, holding over 7,000 issued and pending patents worldwide. Revenue comes from selling proprietary phosphorescent emitter and host materials... Read more

$98.00+24.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 24 Electronic Components
Stop $90.21Target $120.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$138.25+41.1%8 analysts
$120.28our TP
$98.00price
$138.25mean
$168

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of OLED manufacturer customers. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of OLED manufacturer customers
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)16.3
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn37.2%
ROE14.3%
Rev Growth6.6%
Beta1.65
Dividend2.30%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$60-38.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerlimited number of OLED manufacturer customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial licensing and material supply relationships with high-volume manufacturers of OLED products... limited number of such relationships from which most of our material sales and licensing revenue are generated'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.1
Support Resistance
2.6
Gap
3.0
Bollinger
4.2
Extreme gap up (8.6%) - may pull back
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $83.64Resistance $101.62

Price Targets

$90
$120
A.Upside+22.7%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLED stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of OLED manufacturer customers. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $90.21. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLED stock price target?

Take-profit target: $120.28 (+24.0% upside). Prior stop was $90.21. Stop-loss: $90.21.

What are the risks of investing in OLED?

Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of OLED manufacturer customers; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OLED overvalued or undervalued?

Universal Display Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OLED?

17 analysts cover OLED with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Universal Display Corporation do?Universal Display Corporation researches, develops, and commercializes OLED technologies and materials for display and...

Universal Display Corporation researches, develops, and commercializes OLED technologies and materials for display and solid-state lighting, holding over 7,000 issued and pending patents worldwide. Revenue comes from selling proprietary phosphorescent emitter and host materials to OLED display manufacturers and licensing its OLED technology patents to display product manufacturers.

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