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OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.Hold6.3·$17.68
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a reasonable forward P/E of 7.7x with steady net margins of 18%, but an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 6.50, below-average quality fundamentals, and limited growth make it a hold rather than a buy at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Reasonable Valuation Forward Pe↓Deteriorating
  • Elevated Put Call Risk↑Improving
  • Weak Growth Below Trend↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%.

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts,... Read more

$17.68+5.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#60 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.85%(5y avg 4.17%)Payout100.00%at-risk
Stop $16.80Analyst target $18.63(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst consensus$21.42+21.1%6 analysts
$18.63Analyst target
$17.68price
$21.42mean
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jan 28, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%)
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn11.2%
ROE2.4%
Rev Growth32.2%
Beta1.00
Dividend4.85%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV164%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans69%
    10-K Item 1A: '$7.63 billion, or 69.2%, of the Company's total loans consisted of commercial real estate'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioinvestor owned commercial real estate loans49%
    10-K Item 1: '$5.42 billion, or 49.1% of total loans, were investor owned commercial real estate, multi-family, and construction loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 2.01MEDIUM
    OceanFirst completed its previously announced merger with Flushing Financial Corporation effective June 1, 2026; Flushing merged into OceanFirst and Flushing Bank merged into OceanFirst Bank, with OceanFirst as the surviving corporation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.6
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.39%=HEAVYDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.9>=5.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.60Resistance $17.78

Price Targets

$17
$19
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.39%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-28 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OCFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $18.63 (+5.4%), stop $16.80 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OCFC stock price target?

Analyst target: $18.63 (+5.4% upside). Analyst target $18.63 (+5.4%), stop $16.80 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $16.80.

What are the risks of investing in OCFC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Is OCFC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OCFC?

12 analysts cover OCFC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $21.

What does OceanFirst Financial Corp. do?OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community...

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, non-interest-bearing accounts, and time deposits, including brokered deposits. It also offers commercial real estate, multi-family, land loans, construction, and commercial and industrial loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans that are secured by one-to-four family residences; and consumer loans, such as home equity loans and lines of credit, student loans, loans on savings accounts, overdraft line of credit, and other consumer loans. In addition, the company invests in mortgage-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. government and agencies, corporate securities, and other investments; and provides bankcard services, trust and asset management products and services, deposit account services, sales of loans and investments, bank owned life insurance and commercial loan swap income. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Toms River, New Jersey.

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