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OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.Hold5.2·$19.81-1.15%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a reasonable forward P/E of 7.7x with steady net margins of 18%, but an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 6.50, below-average quality fundamentals, and limited growth make it a hold rather than a buy at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Reasonable Valuation Forward PeStable
  • Elevated Put Call RiskDeteriorating
  • Weak Growth Below TrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts,... Read more

$19.81-4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#205 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.08%(5y avg 4.22%)Payout67.80%
Entry $18.73(5% below current)Stop $17.96Target $19.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$21.75+9.8%6 analysts
$19.91our TP
$19.81price
$21.75mean
$19
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $19.72 has reached target $19.91. No upside to wait for. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.6%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.96
Dividend4.08%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV131%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans69%
    10-K Item 1A: '$7.63 billion, or 69.2%, of the Company's total loans consisted of commercial real estate'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioinvestor owned commercial real estate loans49%
    10-K Item 1: '$5.42 billion, or 49.1% of total loans, were investor owned commercial real estate, multi-family, and construction loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 2.01MEDIUM
    OceanFirst completed its previously announced merger with Flushing Financial Corporation effective June 1, 2026; Flushing merged into OceanFirst and Flushing Bank merged into OceanFirst Bank, with OceanFirst as the surviving corporation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
3.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
4.6
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.52Resistance $20.32

Price Targets

$18
$19
$20
A.Upside-4.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OCFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $19.72 has reached target $19.91. No upside to wait for. Target $19.91 (+0.5%), stop $17.96 (−10.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OCFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.91 (-4.0% upside). Target $19.91 (+0.5%), stop $17.96 (−10.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $17.96.

What are the risks of investing in OCFC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (69.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Is OCFC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanFirst Financial Corp. trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OCFC?

13 analysts cover OCFC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $22.

What does OceanFirst Financial Corp. do?OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community...

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services to retail and commercial customers in the United States. The company accepts deposit products, such as money market accounts, savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, non-interest-bearing accounts, and time deposits, including brokered deposits. It also offers commercial real estate, multi-family, land loans, construction, and commercial and industrial loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans that are secured by one-to-four family residences; and consumer loans, such as home equity loans and lines of credit, student loans, loans on savings accounts, overdraft line of credit, and other consumer loans. In addition, the company invests in mortgage-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. government and agencies, corporate securities, and other investments; and provides bankcard services, trust and asset management products and services, deposit account services, sales of loans and investments, bank owned life insurance and commercial loan swap income. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Toms River, New Jersey.

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